Predictions / Football / Portugal. Liga 3 / Fafe vs Guimaraes B

Prediction Audit: Fafe vs Guimaraes B Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Fafe Fafe
Aug 21, 2026 - 19:30
1 1.29
1 1.31
xG Accuracy: 85%
Guimaraes B Guimaraes B

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Guimaraes B at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Guimaraes B Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Guimaraes B considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Guimaraes B +11.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Fafe 34.7% 45.2% -10.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 30.3% -0.7 pp Aligned
Guimaraes B 35.6% 24.5% +11.2 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Guimaraes B's win probability at 35.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.5%, a difference of 11.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Guimaraes B.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Guimaraes B; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Guimaraes B by 11.2 percentage points (24.4% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 21, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Fafe 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Guimaraes B 35.6%
    • xG · Fafe 1.29 — Guimaraes B 1.31
  2. Aug 21, 2026 · 19:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Fafe 2.05 · Draw 3.06 · Guimaraes B 3.79
    • Implied 1X2 · Fafe 45.2% · Draw 30.3% · Guimaraes B 24.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 21, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Fafe 2.05 · Draw 3.06 · Guimaraes B 3.79
    • Implied 1X2 · Fafe 45.2% · Draw 30.3% · Guimaraes B 24.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 21, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 15/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 02:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4039707

Closing Odds 3.79
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Fafe 1–1 Guimaraes B
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga 3
  • Fixture: Fafe vs Guimaraes B
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-21 19:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Fafe 1.29 — Guimaraes B 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga 3 Liga 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Paredes 5 4 0 1 12
1 CF Os Belenenses 5 5 0 0 15
2 AD Marco 09 5 3 1 1 10
2 Atlético CP 5 3 1 1 10
3 Varzim 5 3 0 2 9
3 Oliveirense 5 2 2 1 8
4 Fafe 5 2 2 1 8
4 Mafra 5 2 1 2 7
5 Vianense 5 2 2 1 8
5 Louletano 5 2 1 2 7
6 Leça 5 2 1 2 7
6 Caldas 5 2 1 2 7
7 Guimaraes B 5 1 2 2 5
7 Lusitano Évora 1911 5 1 2 2 5
8 Trofense 5 1 1 3 4
8 SC Covilha 5 1 2 2 5
9 São João Ver 5 0 3 2 3
9 União Santarém 5 1 1 3 4
10 Pacos Ferreira 5 0 2 3 2
10 Vitória de Sernache 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 CF Os Belenenses 5 13 2 +11 15
2 Mafra 5 9 5 +4 7
3 Atlético CP 5 8 3 +5 10
4 Paredes 5 8 4 +4 12
5 Fafe 5 8 4 +4 8
6 Varzim 5 8 5 +3 9
7 Oliveirense 5 7 7 0 8
8 Louletano 5 7 7 0 7
9 Leça 5 7 8 -1 7
10 AD Marco 09 5 6 3 +3 10
11 Vianense 5 6 5 +1 8
12 Caldas 5 5 5 0 7
13 Pacos Ferreira 5 5 10 -5 2
14 Guimaraes B 5 4 5 -1 5
15 Lusitano Évora 1911 5 4 5 -1 5
16 SC Covilha 5 4 6 -2 5
17 São João Ver 5 3 6 -3 3
18 União Santarém 5 3 10 -7 4
19 Vitória de Sernache 5 3 13 -10 1
20 Trofense 5 2 7 -5 4