Predictions / Football / England. Non League Premier - Southern South / Sholing vs Chertsey Town

Prediction Audit: Sholing vs Chertsey Town Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sholing Sholing
Aug 22, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.38
4 1.22
xG Accuracy: 39%
Chertsey Town Chertsey Town

The model missed the final outcome (Chertsey Town win 2–4).

The model had projected Sholing at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sholing Chertsey Town ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw +1.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sholing 39.0% 39.0% -0.0 pp Aligned
Draw 29.5% 28.6% +1.0 pp Aligned
Chertsey Town 31.5% 32.4% -1.0 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.

After full time, the result was Chertsey Town win 2–4.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Sholing; match finished Chertsey Town

Market lesson

The full-time result was Chertsey Town win 2–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 22, 2026 · 14:09 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sholing 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Chertsey Town 31.5%
    • xG · Sholing 1.38 — Chertsey Town 1.22
  2. Aug 22, 2026 · 13:48 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sholing 2.32 · Draw 3.17 · Chertsey Town 2.79
    • Implied 1X2 · Sholing 39.0% · Draw 28.6% · Chertsey Town 32.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 22, 2026 · 14:09 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Sholing 2.32 · Draw 3.17 · Chertsey Town 2.79
    • Implied 1X2 · Sholing 39.0% · Draw 28.6% · Chertsey Town 32.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 22, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Chertsey Town win · 2–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 79/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 95/100
Betting Confidence 82/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 02:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4228736

Closing Odds 3.17
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Chertsey Town win · Sholing 2–4 Chertsey Town
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Non League Premier - Southern South
  • Fixture: Sholing vs Chertsey Town
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.5%
  • xG (showing): Sholing 1.38 — Chertsey Town 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Non League Premier - Southern South Non League Premier - Southern South — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Plymouth Parkway 8 6 1 1 19
2 Uxbridge 8 5 2 1 17
3 Hanworth Villa 8 5 1 2 16
4 Chertsey Town 8 4 2 2 14
5 Bath City 8 4 2 2 14
6 Frome Town 8 4 1 3 13
7 Chichester City 8 4 1 3 13
8 Berkhamsted 9 4 1 4 13
9 Taunton Town 8 4 0 4 12
10 Poole Town 7 4 0 3 12
11 Gosport Borough 8 3 2 3 11
12 Yate Town 7 3 2 2 11
13 Evesham United 7 3 1 3 10
14 Bracknell Town 8 3 1 4 10
15 Wimborne Town 7 2 3 2 9
16 Basingstoke Town 8 2 3 3 9
17 Sholing 7 2 1 4 7
18 Chippenham Town 7 2 1 4 7
19 Hanwell Town 7 1 3 3 6
20 Gloucester City 8 1 3 4 6
21 Malvern Town 8 1 2 5 5
22 Havant & Wville 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Plymouth Parkway 8 22 7 +15 19
2 Taunton Town 8 21 20 +1 12
3 Chertsey Town 8 19 12 +7 14
4 Uxbridge 8 17 7 +10 17
5 Hanworth Villa 8 15 7 +8 16
6 Chichester City 8 13 14 -1 13
7 Basingstoke Town 8 13 14 -1 9
8 Frome Town 8 12 8 +4 13
9 Malvern Town 8 12 23 -11 5
10 Bath City 8 11 7 +4 14
11 Gosport Borough 8 11 9 +2 11
12 Berkhamsted 9 11 12 -1 13
13 Evesham United 7 11 14 -3 10
14 Gloucester City 8 11 16 -5 6
15 Yate Town 7 10 11 -1 11
16 Bracknell Town 8 10 17 -7 10
17 Poole Town 7 8 9 -1 12
18 Havant & Wville 8 8 15 -7 4
19 Sholing 7 7 12 -5 7
20 Chippenham Town 7 7 14 -7 7
21 Wimborne Town 7 6 4 +2 9
22 Hanwell Town 7 6 9 -3 6
Non League Premier - Southern South England. Non League Premier - Southern South Predictions