The model missed the final outcome (Peterborough Sports win 0–2).
The model had projected Leiston at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Leiston Peterborough Sports ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leiston | 37.1% | 42.6% | -5.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.5% | +3.1 pp | Aligned |
| Peterborough Sports | 33.3% | 30.9% | +2.5 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Leiston's win probability at 42.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 5.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the result was Peterborough Sports win 0–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Leiston. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Leiston; match finished Peterborough Sports
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Leiston by 5.6 percentage points (42.7% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Leiston 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Peterborough Sports 33.4%
- xG · Leiston 1.34 — Peterborough Sports 1.26
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 18:16 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Leiston 2.12 · Draw 3.41 · Peterborough Sports 2.93
- Implied 1X2 · Leiston 42.6% · Draw 26.5% · Peterborough Sports 30.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Leiston 2.12 · Draw 3.41 · Peterborough Sports 2.93
- Implied 1X2 · Leiston 42.6% · Draw 26.5% · Peterborough Sports 30.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 22, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Peterborough Sports win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Non League Premier - Southern Central — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Bedford | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 | Bromsgrove Sporting | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 3 | Bury Town | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 4 | Alvechurch | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 5 | Kettering Town | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Anstey Nomads | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 7 | Rushall Olympic | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Peterborough Sports | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Leiston | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Needham Market | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Bishop's Stortford | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 12 | Redditch United | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 13 | Halesowen Town | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 14 | Stourbridge | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 15 | Racing Club Warwick | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 16 | Worcester City | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 17 | Banbury United | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 18 | Leighton Town | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 19 | Leamington | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 20 | Hitchin Town | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 21 | Stratford Town | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 22 | Stamford | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Bedford | 8 | 26 | 8 | +18 | 24 |
| 2 | Alvechurch | 8 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 19 |
| 3 | Bromsgrove Sporting | 8 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 21 |
| 4 | Bury Town | 8 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 21 |
| 5 | Rushall Olympic | 8 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 15 |
| 6 | Anstey Nomads | 8 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 15 |
| 7 | Leiston | 8 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 11 |
| 8 | Peterborough Sports | 8 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 12 |
| 9 | Kettering Town | 8 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 15 |
| 10 | Needham Market | 7 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Redditch United | 8 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Leighton Town | 7 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 5 |
| 13 | Bishop's Stortford | 8 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 | Stourbridge | 7 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 | Racing Club Warwick | 8 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Halesowen Town | 6 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Banbury United | 8 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 6 |
| 18 | Leamington | 7 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 5 |
| 19 | Hitchin Town | 8 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 4 |
| 20 | Stratford Town | 8 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 3 |
| 21 | Worcester City | 8 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 6 |
| 22 | Stamford | 8 | 1 | 21 | -20 | 0 |
