Predictions / Football / England. Non League Premier - Northern / Cleethorpes Town vs Curzon Ashton

Prediction Audit: Cleethorpes Town vs Curzon Ashton Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Cleethorpes Town Cleethorpes Town
Aug 28, 2026 - 18:45
1 1.35
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 56%
Curzon Ashton Curzon Ashton

The model missed the final outcome (Curzon Ashton win 1–3).

The model had projected Cleethorpes Town at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Cleethorpes Town Curzon Ashton ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Cleethorpes Town higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Cleethorpes Town -14.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Cleethorpes Town 37.5% 51.7% -14.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 23.9% +5.7 pp Model Higher
Curzon Ashton 32.9% 24.4% +8.4 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Cleethorpes Town's win probability at 51.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 14.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.

After full time, the result was Curzon Ashton win 1–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Cleethorpes Town than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Cleethorpes Town; match finished Curzon Ashton

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Cleethorpes Town by 14.1 percentage points (51.6% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 28, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Cleethorpes Town 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Curzon Ashton 32.9%
    • xG · Cleethorpes Town 1.35 — Curzon Ashton 1.25
  2. Aug 28, 2026 · 18:23 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Cleethorpes Town 1.71 · Draw 3.69 · Curzon Ashton 3.62
    • Implied 1X2 · Cleethorpes Town 51.7% · Draw 23.9% · Curzon Ashton 24.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 28, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Cleethorpes Town 1.71 · Draw 3.69 · Curzon Ashton 3.62
    • Implied 1X2 · Cleethorpes Town 51.7% · Draw 23.9% · Curzon Ashton 24.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 28, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Curzon Ashton win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 29/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 03:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5144155

Closing Odds 1.71
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Curzon Ashton win · Cleethorpes Town 1–3 Curzon Ashton
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Non League Premier - Northern
  • Fixture: Cleethorpes Town vs Curzon Ashton
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-28 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Cleethorpes Town 1.35 — Curzon Ashton 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Non League Premier - Northern Non League Premier - Northern — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cleethorpes Town 10 7 2 1 23
2 Avro 9 7 1 1 22
3 Redcar Athletic 10 6 4 0 22
4 Guiseley AFC 9 6 1 2 19
5 Warrington Town 9 5 2 2 17
6 Bury 9 5 1 3 16
7 Curzon Ashton 9 5 1 3 16
8 Workington 9 5 1 3 16
9 Gainsborough Trinity 9 4 1 4 13
10 Rylands 9 4 1 4 13
11 Alfreton Town 9 4 0 5 12
12 Whitby Town 9 4 0 5 12
13 Ashton United 9 3 2 4 11
14 Hyde United 10 3 2 5 11
15 AFC Emley 9 2 4 3 10
16 Lancaster City 9 3 1 5 10
17 Leek Town 10 2 3 5 9
18 Bamber Bridge 10 2 3 5 9
19 Stockton Town 10 2 2 6 8
20 Ilkeston Town 9 2 1 6 7
21 Quorn 9 1 3 5 6
22 United of Manchester 9 1 2 6 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Avro 9 28 16 +12 22
2 Cleethorpes Town 10 25 6 +19 23
3 Guiseley AFC 9 22 10 +12 19
4 Redcar Athletic 10 19 7 +12 22
5 Bury 9 19 8 +11 16
6 Leek Town 10 19 20 -1 9
7 Curzon Ashton 9 18 10 +8 16
8 Warrington Town 9 18 14 +4 17
9 Workington 9 17 15 +2 16
10 Alfreton Town 9 15 10 +5 12
11 Gainsborough Trinity 9 14 12 +2 13
12 Whitby Town 9 14 24 -10 12
13 Bamber Bridge 10 14 27 -13 9
14 Stockton Town 10 13 20 -7 8
15 Rylands 9 12 13 -1 13
16 United of Manchester 9 12 19 -7 5
17 Quorn 9 12 23 -11 6
18 Hyde United 10 11 19 -8 11
19 Ashton United 9 10 9 +1 11
20 Lancaster City 9 9 17 -8 10
21 AFC Emley 9 8 15 -7 10
22 Ilkeston Town 9 6 21 -15 7
Non League Premier - Northern England. Non League Premier - Northern Predictions