Predictions / Football / England. Non League Premier - Northern / Bury vs Rylands

Prediction Audit: Bury vs Rylands Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bury Bury
Aug 15, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.26
0 1.34
xG Accuracy: 64%
Rylands Rylands

The model missed the final outcome (Bury win 1–0).

The model had projected Rylands at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Rylands Bury ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Rylands; match finished Bury

Market lesson

The full-time result was Bury win 1–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 09, 2026 · 02:21 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Bury 1.26 — Rylands 1.34
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Bury win · 1–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 02:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3355450

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Bury win · Bury 1–0 Rylands
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Non League Premier - Northern
  • Fixture: Bury vs Rylands
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Bury 1.26 — Rylands 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Non League Premier - Northern Non League Premier - Northern — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Redcar Athletic 14 9 4 1 31
2 Cleethorpes Town 13 9 3 1 30
3 Guiseley AFC 12 8 1 3 25
4 Avro 12 8 1 3 25
5 Rylands 14 7 2 5 23
6 Gainsborough Trinity 12 7 1 4 22
7 Curzon Ashton 12 7 1 4 22
8 Warrington Town 12 6 4 2 22
9 Workington 14 6 3 5 21
10 Lancaster City 14 6 2 6 20
11 Bury 11 6 1 4 19
12 Alfreton Town 14 6 1 7 19
13 Whitby Town 13 5 1 7 16
14 Hyde United 14 4 3 7 15
15 Ashton United 12 3 5 4 14
16 Quorn 13 3 5 5 14
17 Stockton Town 14 3 3 8 12
18 Leek Town 12 2 5 5 11
19 AFC Emley 13 2 5 6 11
20 Bamber Bridge 13 2 4 7 10
21 United of Manchester 12 1 4 7 7
22 Ilkeston Town 14 2 1 11 7
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Avro 12 34 23 +11 25
2 Redcar Athletic 14 31 12 +19 31
3 Cleethorpes Town 13 30 7 +23 30
4 Guiseley AFC 12 25 11 +14 25
5 Gainsborough Trinity 12 25 16 +9 22
6 Rylands 14 25 21 +4 23
7 Curzon Ashton 12 24 16 +8 22
8 Workington 14 24 24 0 21
9 Leek Town 12 24 25 -1 11
10 Warrington Town 12 23 18 +5 22
11 Quorn 13 23 29 -6 14
12 Bury 11 22 11 +11 19
13 Alfreton Town 14 20 16 +4 19
14 Lancaster City 14 19 26 -7 20
15 Whitby Town 13 19 33 -14 16
16 Stockton Town 14 17 25 -8 12
17 Bamber Bridge 13 16 32 -16 10
18 United of Manchester 12 15 23 -8 7
19 Hyde United 14 15 25 -10 15
20 Ashton United 12 14 13 +1 14
21 AFC Emley 13 12 25 -13 11
22 Ilkeston Town 14 8 34 -26 7
Non League Premier - Northern England. Non League Premier - Northern Predictions