Predictions / Football / England. Non League Premier - Isthmian / Carshalton Athletic vs Brentwood Town

Prediction Audit: Carshalton Athletic vs Brentwood Town Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Carshalton Athletic Carshalton Athletic
Aug 29, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.28
0 1.32
xG Accuracy: 57%
Brentwood Town Brentwood Town

The model missed the final outcome (Carshalton Athletic win 2–0).

The model had projected Brentwood Town at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Brentwood Town Carshalton Athletic ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Brentwood Town; match finished Carshalton Athletic

Market lesson

The full-time result was Carshalton Athletic win 2–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 23, 2026 · 03:07 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Carshalton Athletic 1.28 — Brentwood Town 1.32
  2. Aug 29, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Carshalton Athletic win · 2–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 03:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5143820

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Carshalton Athletic win · Carshalton Athletic 2–0 Brentwood Town
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Non League Premier - Isthmian
  • Fixture: Carshalton Athletic vs Brentwood Town
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-29 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Carshalton Athletic 1.28 — Brentwood Town 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Non League Premier - Isthmian Non League Premier - Isthmian — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Enfield Town 11 9 0 2 27
2 Welling United 11 8 0 3 24
3 Dartford 11 8 0 3 24
4 Lewes 11 7 1 3 22
5 Carshalton Athletic 13 7 0 6 21
6 Ramsgate 11 6 1 4 19
7 Eastbourne Borough 10 6 1 3 19
8 Chatham Town 10 6 0 4 18
9 St Albans City 9 5 2 2 17
10 Dulwich Hamlet 9 5 1 3 16
11 Leatherhead 11 4 3 4 15
12 Burgess Hill Town 9 3 5 1 14
13 Cheshunt 11 3 5 3 14
14 Cray Wanderers 9 3 3 3 12
15 Aveley 11 3 2 6 11
16 Wingate & Finchley 9 3 2 4 11
17 Brentwood Town 10 3 0 7 9
18 Whyteleafe 11 2 3 6 9
19 Maldon & Tiptree 12 3 0 9 9
20 Three Bridges 10 2 2 6 8
21 Whitehawk 11 1 2 8 5
22 Stanway Rovers 10 1 1 8 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Enfield Town 11 30 13 +17 27
2 Ramsgate 11 27 15 +12 19
3 Chatham Town 10 22 13 +9 18
4 Welling United 11 20 10 +10 24
5 Eastbourne Borough 10 19 11 +8 19
6 Cray Wanderers 9 19 14 +5 12
7 Carshalton Athletic 13 19 22 -3 21
8 Three Bridges 10 19 29 -10 8
9 Dartford 11 18 12 +6 24
10 Dulwich Hamlet 9 18 12 +6 16
11 St Albans City 9 18 13 +5 17
12 Aveley 11 18 19 -1 11
13 Leatherhead 11 18 20 -2 15
14 Lewes 11 17 12 +5 22
15 Burgess Hill Town 9 16 11 +5 14
16 Brentwood Town 10 15 19 -4 9
17 Maldon & Tiptree 12 15 33 -18 9
18 Wingate & Finchley 9 14 20 -6 11
19 Whyteleafe 11 13 21 -8 9
20 Cheshunt 11 11 14 -3 14
21 Whitehawk 11 11 26 -15 5
22 Stanway Rovers 10 8 26 -18 4
Non League Premier - Isthmian England. Non League Premier - Isthmian Predictions