AI correctly predicted the Welling United win.
The match finished 4–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Welling United Welling United ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-0 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Welling United win 4–0).
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 02:20 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Welling United 1.34 — Stanway Rovers 1.26
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Welling United win · 4–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Welling United win · Welling United 4–0 Stanway Rovers
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Non League Premier - Isthmian — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Enfield Town | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 27 |
| 2 | Welling United | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 24 |
| 3 | Dartford | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 24 |
| 4 | Lewes | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| 5 | Carshalton Athletic | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 21 |
| 6 | Ramsgate | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 19 |
| 7 | Eastbourne Borough | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 8 | Chatham Town | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 18 |
| 9 | St Albans City | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 10 | Dulwich Hamlet | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 11 | Leatherhead | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 12 | Burgess Hill Town | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 13 | Cheshunt | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 14 | Cray Wanderers | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 15 | Aveley | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 16 | Wingate & Finchley | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 17 | Brentwood Town | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 18 | Whyteleafe | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| 19 | Maldon & Tiptree | 12 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 20 | Three Bridges | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 21 | Whitehawk | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 |
| 22 | Stanway Rovers | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Enfield Town | 11 | 30 | 13 | +17 | 27 |
| 2 | Ramsgate | 11 | 27 | 15 | +12 | 19 |
| 3 | Chatham Town | 10 | 22 | 13 | +9 | 18 |
| 4 | Welling United | 11 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 24 |
| 5 | Eastbourne Borough | 10 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 19 |
| 6 | Cray Wanderers | 9 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 12 |
| 7 | Carshalton Athletic | 13 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 21 |
| 8 | Three Bridges | 10 | 19 | 29 | -10 | 8 |
| 9 | Dartford | 11 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 24 |
| 10 | Dulwich Hamlet | 9 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 16 |
| 11 | St Albans City | 9 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 17 |
| 12 | Aveley | 11 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Leatherhead | 11 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 15 |
| 14 | Lewes | 11 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 22 |
| 15 | Burgess Hill Town | 9 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 14 |
| 16 | Brentwood Town | 10 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 9 |
| 17 | Maldon & Tiptree | 12 | 15 | 33 | -18 | 9 |
| 18 | Wingate & Finchley | 9 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 11 |
| 19 | Whyteleafe | 11 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 9 |
| 20 | Cheshunt | 11 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 14 |
| 21 | Whitehawk | 11 | 11 | 26 | -15 | 5 |
| 22 | Stanway Rovers | 10 | 8 | 26 | -18 | 4 |
