The model missed the final outcome (Lewes win 0–2).
The model had projected St Albans City at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 St Albans City Lewes ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned St Albans City; match finished Lewes
Market lesson
The full-time result was Lewes win 0–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 02:20 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · St Albans City 1.41 — Lewes 1.19
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Lewes win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Lewes win · St Albans City 0–2 Lewes
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Non League Premier - Isthmian — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Welling United | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 24 |
| 2 | Enfield Town | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 |
| 3 | Dartford | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 |
| 4 | Carshalton Athletic | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 21 |
| 5 | Lewes | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 6 | Ramsgate | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Dulwich Hamlet | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 8 | Eastbourne Borough | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 9 | Chatham Town | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 10 | Leatherhead | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 11 | St Albans City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 12 | Burgess Hill Town | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 13 | Cray Wanderers | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 14 | Cheshunt | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| 15 | Wingate & Finchley | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 16 | Aveley | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 17 | Brentwood Town | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 18 | Maldon & Tiptree | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 9 |
| 19 | Whyteleafe | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 20 | Three Bridges | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| 21 | Whitehawk | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 |
| 22 | Stanway Rovers | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Enfield Town | 9 | 25 | 12 | +13 | 21 |
| 2 | Ramsgate | 10 | 23 | 14 | +9 | 16 |
| 3 | Welling United | 10 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 24 |
| 4 | Chatham Town | 9 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 15 |
| 5 | Dulwich Hamlet | 8 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 16 |
| 6 | Eastbourne Borough | 9 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 16 |
| 7 | Cray Wanderers | 8 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 12 |
| 8 | Carshalton Athletic | 11 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 21 |
| 9 | St Albans City | 8 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 14 |
| 10 | Leatherhead | 10 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 15 |
| 11 | Aveley | 10 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Dartford | 10 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 21 |
| 13 | Three Bridges | 9 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 5 |
| 14 | Burgess Hill Town | 8 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 13 |
| 15 | Lewes | 10 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 19 |
| 16 | Brentwood Town | 9 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 9 |
| 17 | Maldon & Tiptree | 11 | 14 | 31 | -17 | 9 |
| 18 | Wingate & Finchley | 8 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 11 |
| 19 | Whyteleafe | 10 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 6 |
| 20 | Whitehawk | 10 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 5 |
| 21 | Cheshunt | 10 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 11 |
| 22 | Stanway Rovers | 9 | 7 | 23 | -16 | 4 |
