AI correctly predicted the Bayern München U19 win.
The match finished 4–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Bayern München U19 Bayern München U19 ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 4-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München U19 | 41.9% | 76.9% | -35.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.3% | 12.7% | +16.6 pp | Model Edge |
| Unterhaching U19 | 28.8% | 10.4% | +18.4 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Bayern München U19's win probability at 76.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.9%, a difference of 35.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Bayern München U19 win 4–0).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Bayern München U19 higher (76.9% vs model 41.9%, 35.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Bayern München U19 win 4–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Bayern München U19 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Unterhaching U19 28.8%
- xG · Bayern München U19 1.44 — Unterhaching U19 1.16
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 08:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Bayern München U19 1.17 · Draw 7.09 · Unterhaching U19 8.64
- Implied 1X2 · Bayern München U19 76.9% · Draw 12.7% · Unterhaching U19 10.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Bayern München U19 1.17 · Draw 7.09 · Unterhaching U19 8.64
- Implied 1X2 · Bayern München U19 76.9% · Draw 12.7% · Unterhaching U19 10.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Bayern München U19 win · 4–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (35 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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