AI correctly predicted the Bahia U20 win.
The match finished 0–8, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Bahia U20 Bahia U20 ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-8 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense de Feira U20 | 30.7% | 23.6% | +7.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 28.7% | 22.6% | +6.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Bahia U20 | 40.6% | 53.9% | -13.2 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Bahia U20's win probability at 53.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.6%, a difference of 13.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Bahia U20 win 0–8).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Bahia U20 than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (8 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Bahia U20 higher (53.8% vs model 40.6%, 13.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Bahia U20 win 0–8).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 23:12 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Fluminense de Feira U20 30.7% · Draw 28.7% · Bahia U20 40.7%
- xG · Fluminense de Feira U20 1.23 — Bahia U20 1.37
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 17:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Fluminense de Feira U20 3.77 · Draw 3.94 · Bahia U20 1.65
- Implied 1X2 · Fluminense de Feira U20 23.6% · Draw 22.6% · Bahia U20 53.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Fluminense de Feira U20 3.77 · Draw 3.94 · Bahia U20 1.65
- Implied 1X2 · Fluminense de Feira U20 23.6% · Draw 22.6% · Bahia U20 53.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Bahia U20 win · 0–8
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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