AI correctly predicted the Križevci win.
The match finished 0–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Križevci Križevci ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koprivnica | 31.0% | 54.8% | -23.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 24.0% | +5.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Križevci | 39.5% | 21.2% | +18.2 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Koprivnica's win probability at 54.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 23.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Križevci win 0–3).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Križevci higher (63.2% vs model 39.5%, 23.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Križevci win 0–3).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Koprivnica 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Križevci 39.5%
- xG · Koprivnica 1.21 — Križevci 1.39
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:22 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Koprivnica 1.62 · Draw 3.70 · Križevci 4.18
- Implied 1X2 · Koprivnica 54.8% · Draw 24.0% · Križevci 21.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Koprivnica 1.62 · Draw 3.70 · Križevci 4.18
- Implied 1X2 · Koprivnica 54.8% · Draw 24.0% · Križevci 21.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Križevci win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (24 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Second NL — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bjelovar | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 2 | Uskok Klis | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 3 | Uljanik | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 4 | Trnje | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Križevci | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Jarun | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Inter Zapresic | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Grobničan Čavle | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Dugo Selo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Hrvatski Dragovoljac | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | Zagora | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 | Lucko | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 13 | Slavonija Požega | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 14 | Solin | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 15 | Koprivnica | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 16 | Varteks Varaždin | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bjelovar | 5 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 | Uskok Klis | 6 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 12 |
| 3 | Zagora | 5 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 6 |
| 4 | Uljanik | 6 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 11 |
| 5 | Jarun | 5 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 7 |
| 6 | Slavonija Požega | 6 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 5 |
| 7 | Križevci | 6 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 10 |
| 8 | Trnje | 5 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 10 |
| 9 | Inter Zapresic | 5 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Grobničan Čavle | 5 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Koprivnica | 6 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 4 |
| 12 | Lucko | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 5 |
| 13 | Solin | 5 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Hrvatski Dragovoljac | 6 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Dugo Selo | 5 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | Varteks Varaždin | 5 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 3 |
