Predictions / Football / Egypt. Second League / Team vs El Dakhleya

Prediction Audit: Team vs El Dakhleya Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Team Team
Sep 24, 2026 - 13:30
1 1.37
2 1.23
xG Accuracy: 73%
El Dakhleya El Dakhleya

The model missed the final outcome (El Dakhleya win 1–2).

The model had projected Team at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Team El Dakhleya ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates El Dakhleya considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: El Dakhleya +7.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Team 38.5% 42.4% -3.9 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 32.8% -3.3 pp Aligned
El Dakhleya 31.9% 24.8% +7.2 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates El Dakhleya's win probability at 31.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.8%, a difference of 7.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was El Dakhleya win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on El Dakhleya.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Team; match finished El Dakhleya

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Team by 7.2 percentage points (31.3% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 24, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Team 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · El Dakhleya 31.9%
    • xG · Team 1.37 — El Dakhleya 1.23
  2. Sep 24, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Team 2.16 · Draw 2.79 · El Dakhleya 3.70
    • Implied 1X2 · Team 42.4% · Draw 32.8% · El Dakhleya 24.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 24, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Team 2.16 · Draw 2.79 · El Dakhleya 3.70
    • Implied 1X2 · Team 42.4% · Draw 32.8% · El Dakhleya 24.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 24, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result El Dakhleya win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 64/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 18, 2026 · 01:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9339302

Closing Odds 3.7
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result El Dakhleya win · Team 1–2 El Dakhleya
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Second League
  • Fixture: Team vs El Dakhleya
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-24 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Team 1.37 — El Dakhleya 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 35.1% · Probability edge: +13.1 pts · Est. EV: +32.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League Second League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Masar 6 5 1 0 16
2 Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 6 4 2 0 14
3 Kahraba Ismailia 6 4 1 1 13
4 Haras El Hodood 5 4 1 0 13
5 Pharco 6 4 1 1 13
6 AL Nasr SC 6 2 3 1 9
7 Itesalat 5 3 0 2 9
8 Tersana 5 2 2 1 8
9 El Mansura 6 2 2 2 8
10 Team 6 2 1 3 7
11 Tanta SC 5 2 1 2 7
12 El Seka El Hadid 6 2 1 3 7
13 El Entag EL Harby 5 1 3 1 6
14 El Dakhleya 6 1 3 2 6
15 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 5 1 1 3 4
16 La Viena FC 5 0 3 2 3
17 Proxy 6 1 0 5 3
18 Mega Sport 5 0 2 3 2
19 Ismaily SC 5 0 2 3 2
20 Dayrout 5 0 0 5 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Masar 6 13 3 +10 16
2 Kahraba Ismailia 6 11 4 +7 13
3 Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 6 8 2 +6 14
4 Haras El Hodood 5 8 2 +6 13
5 Pharco 6 8 5 +3 13
6 AL Nasr SC 6 7 4 +3 9
7 Itesalat 5 7 5 +2 9
8 El Entag EL Harby 5 7 5 +2 6
9 El Mansura 6 6 7 -1 8
10 Team 6 6 7 -1 7
11 El Seka El Hadid 6 6 9 -3 7
12 Tersana 5 4 4 0 8
13 Tanta SC 5 4 5 -1 7
14 Ismaily SC 5 4 9 -5 2
15 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 5 3 5 -2 4
16 La Viena FC 5 3 5 -2 3
17 El Dakhleya 6 3 6 -3 6
18 Mega Sport 5 3 6 -3 2
19 Proxy 6 2 7 -5 3
20 Dayrout 5 0 13 -13 0
Second League Egypt. Second League Predictions