Predictions / Football / Egypt. Second League / Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat vs El Mansura

Prediction Audit: Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat vs El Mansura Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat
Sep 24, 2026 - 13:30
2 1.37
0 1.23
xG Accuracy: 60%
El Mansura El Mansura

AI correctly predicted the Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Draw higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Draw -6.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 38.5% 37.6% +0.9 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 35.7% -6.1 pp Market Higher
El Mansura 31.9% 26.7% +5.2 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Draw's win probability at 35.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 29.6%, a difference of 6.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat higher (44.6% vs model 38.5%, 6.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat win 2–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 24, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · El Mansura 31.9%
    • xG · Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 1.37 — El Mansura 1.23
  2. Sep 24, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 2.44 · Draw 2.57 · El Mansura 3.43
    • Implied 1X2 · Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 37.6% · Draw 35.7% · El Mansura 26.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 24, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 2.44 · Draw 2.57 · El Mansura 3.43
    • Implied 1X2 · Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 37.6% · Draw 35.7% · El Mansura 26.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 24, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 69/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 18, 2026 · 01:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9339224

Closing Odds 2.57
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat win · Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 2–0 El Mansura
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Second League
  • Fixture: Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat vs El Mansura
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-24 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 1.37 — El Mansura 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 31.2% · Probability edge: +17.0 pts · Est. EV: +49.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League Second League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Masar 6 5 1 0 16
2 Haras El Hodood 6 4 2 0 14
3 Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 6 4 2 0 14
4 Kahraba Ismailia 6 4 1 1 13
5 Pharco 6 4 1 1 13
6 Itesalat 6 4 0 2 12
7 AL Nasr SC 6 2 3 1 9
8 Tersana 6 2 3 1 9
9 El Mansura 6 2 2 2 8
10 Tanta SC 6 2 2 2 8
11 El Entag EL Harby 6 1 4 1 7
12 Team 6 2 1 3 7
13 El Seka El Hadid 6 2 1 3 7
14 El Dakhleya 6 1 3 2 6
15 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 6 1 2 3 5
16 Ismaily SC 6 1 2 3 5
17 La Viena FC 6 0 3 3 3
18 Proxy 6 1 0 5 3
19 Mega Sport 6 0 2 4 2
20 Dayrout 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Masar 6 13 3 +10 16
2 Kahraba Ismailia 6 11 4 +7 13
3 Haras El Hodood 6 8 2 +6 14
4 Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 6 8 2 +6 14
5 Pharco 6 8 5 +3 13
6 Itesalat 6 8 5 +3 12
7 AL Nasr SC 6 7 4 +3 9
8 El Entag EL Harby 6 7 5 +2 7
9 Ismaily SC 6 7 11 -4 5
10 El Mansura 6 6 7 -1 8
11 Team 6 6 7 -1 7
12 El Seka El Hadid 6 6 9 -3 7
13 Tersana 6 5 5 0 9
14 Mega Sport 6 5 9 -4 2
15 Tanta SC 6 4 5 -1 8
16 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 6 4 6 -2 5
17 El Dakhleya 6 3 6 -3 6
18 La Viena FC 6 3 6 -3 3
19 Proxy 6 2 7 -5 3
20 Dayrout 6 0 13 -13 1
Second League Egypt. Second League Predictions