Predictions / Football / Egypt. Second League / Kahraba Ismailia vs Pharco

Prediction Audit: Kahraba Ismailia vs Pharco Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kahraba Ismailia Kahraba Ismailia
Sep 24, 2026 - 13:30
3 0.82
1 0.65
xG Accuracy: 50%
Pharco Pharco

The model missed the final outcome (Kahraba Ismailia win 3–1).

The model had projected Draw at 40.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 draw Kahraba Ismailia ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Draw +6.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Kahraba Ismailia 34.9% 41.3% -6.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 40.2% 33.6% +6.6 pp Model Higher
Pharco 24.9% 25.1% -0.2 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 40.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 33.6%, a difference of 6.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Kahraba Ismailia win 3–1.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Draw by 6.6 percentage points (33.6% vs model 40.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 24, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Kahraba Ismailia 35.0% · Draw 40.2% · Pharco 24.9%
    • xG · Kahraba Ismailia 0.82 — Pharco 0.65
  2. Sep 24, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Kahraba Ismailia 2.22 · Draw 2.73 · Pharco 3.66
    • Implied 1X2 · Kahraba Ismailia 41.3% · Draw 33.6% · Pharco 25.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 24, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Kahraba Ismailia 2.22 · Draw 2.73 · Pharco 3.66
    • Implied 1X2 · Kahraba Ismailia 41.3% · Draw 33.6% · Pharco 25.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 24, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Kahraba Ismailia win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 23/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 18, 2026 · 01:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9339177

Closing Odds 2.73
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kahraba Ismailia win · Kahraba Ismailia 3–1 Pharco
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Second League
  • Fixture: Kahraba Ismailia vs Pharco
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-24 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 40.2% · Away 24.9%
  • xG (showing): Kahraba Ismailia 0.82 — Pharco 0.65 (total xG ≈ 1.47)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 81.6% · Implied: 65.2% · Probability edge: +16.4 pts · Est. EV: +17.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 28.3% · No 71.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (23.0%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Second League Matches Track Kahraba Ismailia Next Match Prediction Track Pharco Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Kahraba Ismailia & Pharco!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Second League Second League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Masar 6 5 1 0 16
2 Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 6 4 2 0 14
3 Kahraba Ismailia 6 4 1 1 13
4 Haras El Hodood 5 4 1 0 13
5 Pharco 6 4 1 1 13
6 AL Nasr SC 6 2 3 1 9
7 Itesalat 5 3 0 2 9
8 Tersana 5 2 2 1 8
9 El Mansura 6 2 2 2 8
10 Team 6 2 1 3 7
11 Tanta SC 5 2 1 2 7
12 El Seka El Hadid 6 2 1 3 7
13 El Entag EL Harby 5 1 3 1 6
14 El Dakhleya 6 1 3 2 6
15 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 5 1 1 3 4
16 La Viena FC 5 0 3 2 3
17 Proxy 6 1 0 5 3
18 Mega Sport 5 0 2 3 2
19 Ismaily SC 5 0 2 3 2
20 Dayrout 5 0 0 5 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Masar 6 13 3 +10 16
2 Kahraba Ismailia 6 11 4 +7 13
3 Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 6 8 2 +6 14
4 Haras El Hodood 5 8 2 +6 13
5 Pharco 6 8 5 +3 13
6 AL Nasr SC 6 7 4 +3 9
7 Itesalat 5 7 5 +2 9
8 El Entag EL Harby 5 7 5 +2 6
9 El Mansura 6 6 7 -1 8
10 Team 6 6 7 -1 7
11 El Seka El Hadid 6 6 9 -3 7
12 Tersana 5 4 4 0 8
13 Tanta SC 5 4 5 -1 7
14 Ismaily SC 5 4 9 -5 2
15 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 5 3 5 -2 4
16 La Viena FC 5 3 5 -2 3
17 El Dakhleya 6 3 6 -3 6
18 Mega Sport 5 3 6 -3 2
19 Proxy 6 2 7 -5 3
20 Dayrout 5 0 13 -13 0
Second League Egypt. Second League Predictions