Predictions / Football / Egypt. Second League / Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat vs La Viena FC

Prediction Audit: Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat vs La Viena FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat
Sep 11, 2026 - 13:30
2 1.21
1 1.39
xG Accuracy: 72%
La Viena FC La Viena FC

The model missed the final outcome (Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat win 2–1).

The model had projected La Viena FC at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 La Viena FC Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates La Viena FC considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: La Viena FC +8.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 31.0% 32.5% -1.5 pp Aligned
Draw 29.5% 36.5% -7.0 pp Market Higher
La Viena FC 39.5% 30.9% +8.5 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates La Viena FC's win probability at 39.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 30.9%, a difference of 8.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on La Viena FC.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned La Viena FC; match finished Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on La Viena FC by 8.5 percentage points (31.0% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 11, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · La Viena FC 39.5%
    • xG · Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 1.21 — La Viena FC 1.39
  2. Sep 11, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 2.43 · Draw 2.55 · La Viena FC 3.46
    • Implied 1X2 · Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 37.7% · Draw 35.9% · La Viena FC 26.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 11, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 2.85 · Draw 2.54 · La Viena FC 3.00
    • Implied 1X2 · Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 32.5% · Draw 36.5% · La Viena FC 30.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 11, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 19/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 01:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7024525

Closing Odds 3.0
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat win · Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 2–1 La Viena FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Second League
  • Fixture: Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat vs La Viena FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-11 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.5%
  • xG (showing): Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 1.21 — La Viena FC 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 28.4% · Probability edge: +19.8 pts · Est. EV: +63.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League Second League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Masar 6 5 1 0 16
2 Haras El Hodood 6 4 2 0 14
3 Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 6 4 2 0 14
4 Kahraba Ismailia 6 4 1 1 13
5 Pharco 6 4 1 1 13
6 Itesalat 6 4 0 2 12
7 AL Nasr SC 6 2 3 1 9
8 Tersana 6 2 3 1 9
9 El Mansura 6 2 2 2 8
10 Tanta SC 6 2 2 2 8
11 El Entag EL Harby 6 1 4 1 7
12 Team 6 2 1 3 7
13 El Seka El Hadid 6 2 1 3 7
14 El Dakhleya 6 1 3 2 6
15 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 6 1 2 3 5
16 Ismaily SC 6 1 2 3 5
17 La Viena FC 6 0 3 3 3
18 Proxy 6 1 0 5 3
19 Mega Sport 6 0 2 4 2
20 Dayrout 6 0 1 5 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Masar 6 13 3 +10 16
2 Kahraba Ismailia 6 11 4 +7 13
3 Haras El Hodood 6 8 2 +6 14
4 Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 6 8 2 +6 14
5 Pharco 6 8 5 +3 13
6 Itesalat 6 8 5 +3 12
7 AL Nasr SC 6 7 4 +3 9
8 El Entag EL Harby 6 7 5 +2 7
9 Ismaily SC 6 7 11 -4 5
10 El Mansura 6 6 7 -1 8
11 Team 6 6 7 -1 7
12 El Seka El Hadid 6 6 9 -3 7
13 Tersana 6 5 5 0 9
14 Mega Sport 6 5 9 -4 2
15 Tanta SC 6 4 5 -1 8
16 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 6 4 6 -2 5
17 El Dakhleya 6 3 6 -3 6
18 La Viena FC 6 3 6 -3 3
19 Proxy 6 2 7 -5 3
20 Dayrout 6 0 13 -13 1
Second League Egypt. Second League Predictions