Predictions / Football / Egypt. Second League / Kahraba Ismailia vs El Dakhleya

Prediction Audit: Kahraba Ismailia vs El Dakhleya Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kahraba Ismailia Kahraba Ismailia
Sep 10, 2026 - 13:30
3 1.45
0 1.15
xG Accuracy: 48%
El Dakhleya El Dakhleya

AI correctly predicted the Kahraba Ismailia win.

The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Kahraba Ismailia Kahraba Ismailia ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates El Dakhleya considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: El Dakhleya +10.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Kahraba Ismailia 42.4% 52.7% -10.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.3% 29.3% -0.0 pp Aligned
El Dakhleya 28.4% 18.0% +10.3 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates El Dakhleya's win probability at 28.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 18.0%, a difference of 10.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Kahraba Ismailia win 3–0).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on El Dakhleya.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Kahraba Ismailia more conservatively (32.1% vs model 42.4%, 10.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Kahraba Ismailia win 3–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 10, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Kahraba Ismailia 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · El Dakhleya 28.4%
    • xG · Kahraba Ismailia 1.45 — El Dakhleya 1.15
  2. Sep 10, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Kahraba Ismailia 1.74 · Draw 3.13 · El Dakhleya 5.08
    • Implied 1X2 · Kahraba Ismailia 52.7% · Draw 29.3% · El Dakhleya 18.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 10, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Kahraba Ismailia 1.74 · Draw 3.13 · El Dakhleya 5.08
    • Implied 1X2 · Kahraba Ismailia 52.7% · Draw 29.3% · El Dakhleya 18.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 10, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Kahraba Ismailia win · 3–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 48/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 04, 2026 · 01:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6847925

Closing Odds 5.08
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kahraba Ismailia win · Kahraba Ismailia 3–0 El Dakhleya
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Second League
  • Fixture: Kahraba Ismailia vs El Dakhleya
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-10 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 28.4%
  • xG (showing): Kahraba Ismailia 1.45 — El Dakhleya 1.15 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 53.9% · Implied: 42.0% · Probability edge: +11.9 pts · Est. EV: +21.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League Second League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Masar 6 5 1 0 16
2 Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 6 4 2 0 14
3 Kahraba Ismailia 6 4 1 1 13
4 Haras El Hodood 5 4 1 0 13
5 Pharco 6 4 1 1 13
6 AL Nasr SC 6 2 3 1 9
7 Itesalat 5 3 0 2 9
8 Tersana 5 2 2 1 8
9 El Mansura 6 2 2 2 8
10 Team 6 2 1 3 7
11 Tanta SC 5 2 1 2 7
12 El Seka El Hadid 6 2 1 3 7
13 El Entag EL Harby 5 1 3 1 6
14 El Dakhleya 6 1 3 2 6
15 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 5 1 1 3 4
16 La Viena FC 5 0 3 2 3
17 Proxy 6 1 0 5 3
18 Mega Sport 5 0 2 3 2
19 Ismaily SC 5 0 2 3 2
20 Dayrout 5 0 0 5 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Masar 6 13 3 +10 16
2 Kahraba Ismailia 6 11 4 +7 13
3 Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 6 8 2 +6 14
4 Haras El Hodood 5 8 2 +6 13
5 Pharco 6 8 5 +3 13
6 AL Nasr SC 6 7 4 +3 9
7 Itesalat 5 7 5 +2 9
8 El Entag EL Harby 5 7 5 +2 6
9 El Mansura 6 6 7 -1 8
10 Team 6 6 7 -1 7
11 El Seka El Hadid 6 6 9 -3 7
12 Tersana 5 4 4 0 8
13 Tanta SC 5 4 5 -1 7
14 Ismaily SC 5 4 9 -5 2
15 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 5 3 5 -2 4
16 La Viena FC 5 3 5 -2 3
17 El Dakhleya 6 3 6 -3 6
18 Mega Sport 5 3 6 -3 2
19 Proxy 6 2 7 -5 3
20 Dayrout 5 0 13 -13 0
Second League Egypt. Second League Predictions