Prediction Audit: Proxy vs Tersana Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Proxy

Sep 04, 2026 - 13:30

2 1.43

0 1.17

xG Accuracy: 62%

Tersana

AI correctly predicted the Proxy win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Proxy Proxy ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Proxy	41.4%	28.8%	+12.6 pp	Model Edge
Draw	29.4%	36.9%	-7.6 pp	Market Higher
Tersana	29.2%	34.3%	-5.0 pp	Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Proxy's win probability at 41.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 28.8%, a difference of 12.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Proxy win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Proxy.

The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Proxy more conservatively (28.8% vs model 41.4%, 12.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Proxy win 2–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 04, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Proxy 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Tersana 29.3%
- xG · Proxy 1.43 — Tersana 1.17
Sep 04, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Proxy 3.18 · Draw 2.48 · Tersana 2.67
- Implied 1X2 · Proxy 28.8% · Draw 36.9% · Tersana 34.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 04, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Proxy 3.18 · Draw 2.48 · Tersana 2.67
- Implied 1X2 · Proxy 28.8% · Draw 36.9% · Tersana 34.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 04, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Proxy win · 2–0
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (13 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

Statistical edge detected
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 12/100

Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 29, 2026 · 01:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5906291

Closing Odds 3.18

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Proxy win · Proxy 2–0 Tersana

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Second League
Fixture: Proxy vs Tersana
Kickoff: 2026-09-04 13:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.3%
xG (showing): Proxy 1.43 — Tersana 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.3%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Second League Matches Track Proxy Next Match Prediction Track Tersana Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Proxy & Tersana!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Predictions

Second League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Masar	7	5	1	1	16
2	Haras El Hodood	6	4	2	0	14
3	Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat	6	4	2	0	14
4	Kahraba Ismailia	6	4	1	1	13
5	Pharco	7	4	1	2	13
6	AL Nasr SC	7	3	3	1	12
7	Itesalat	6	4	0	2	12
8	Tersana	7	3	3	1	12
9	El Mansura	7	3	2	2	11
10	El Seka El Hadid	7	3	1	3	10
11	Tanta SC	6	2	2	2	8
12	El Entag EL Harby	7	1	4	2	7
13	Team	6	2	1	3	7
14	El Dakhleya	6	1	3	2	6
15	Baladiyyat Al Mehalla	6	1	2	3	5
16	Ismaily SC	6	1	2	3	5
17	La Viena FC	7	0	3	4	3
18	Proxy	6	1	0	5	3
19	Mega Sport	6	0	2	4	2
20	Dayrout	6	0	1	5	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Masar	7	13	5	+8	16
2	Kahraba Ismailia	6	11	4	+7	13
3	El Entag EL Harby	7	11	10	+1	7
4	El Seka El Hadid	7	11	13	-2	10
5	AL Nasr SC	7	10	5	+5	12
6	Haras El Hodood	6	8	2	+6	14
7	Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat	6	8	2	+6	14
8	Itesalat	6	8	5	+3	12
9	Pharco	7	8	6	+2	13
10	El Mansura	7	8	7	+1	11
11	Ismaily SC	6	7	11	-4	5
12	Tersana	7	6	5	+1	12
13	Team	6	6	7	-1	7
14	Mega Sport	6	5	9	-4	2
15	Tanta SC	6	4	5	-1	8
16	Baladiyyat Al Mehalla	6	4	6	-2	5
17	La Viena FC	7	4	9	-5	3
18	El Dakhleya	6	3	6	-3	6
19	Proxy	6	2	7	-5	3
20	Dayrout	6	0	13	-13	1