Prediction Audit: Dayrout vs Itesalat Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dayrout

Sep 03, 2026 - 13:30

0 1.44

2 1.16

xG Accuracy: 53%

Itesalat

The model missed the final outcome (Itesalat win 0–2).

The model had projected Dayrout at 41.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Dayrout Itesalat ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Dayrout	41.9%	22.9%	+19.0 pp	Model Edge
Draw	29.3%	34.1%	-4.8 pp	Aligned
Itesalat	28.8%	43.0%	-14.2 pp	Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Dayrout's win probability at 41.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 22.9%, a difference of 19.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Itesalat win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Dayrout.

The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
1X2: model leaned Dayrout; match finished Itesalat

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Dayrout by 19.0 percentage points (22.9% vs model 41.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 03, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Dayrout 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Itesalat 28.8%
- xG · Dayrout 1.44 — Itesalat 1.16
Sep 03, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Dayrout 4.00 · Draw 2.69 · Itesalat 2.13
- Implied 1X2 · Dayrout 22.9% · Draw 34.1% · Itesalat 43.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 03, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Dayrout 4.00 · Draw 2.69 · Itesalat 2.13
- Implied 1X2 · Dayrout 22.9% · Draw 34.1% · Itesalat 43.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 03, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Itesalat win · 0–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (19 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

Statistical edge detected
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 1/100

Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 28, 2026 · 01:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5732109

Closing Odds 4.0

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Itesalat win · Dayrout 0–2 Itesalat

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Second League
Fixture: Dayrout vs Itesalat
Kickoff: 2026-09-03 13:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Away 28.8%
xG (showing): Dayrout 1.44 — Itesalat 1.16 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Masar	6	5	1	0	16
2	Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat	6	4	2	0	14
3	Kahraba Ismailia	6	4	1	1	13
4	Haras El Hodood	5	4	1	0	13
5	Pharco	6	4	1	1	13
6	AL Nasr SC	6	2	3	1	9
7	Itesalat	5	3	0	2	9
8	Tersana	5	2	2	1	8
9	El Mansura	6	2	2	2	8
10	Team	6	2	1	3	7
11	Tanta SC	5	2	1	2	7
12	El Seka El Hadid	6	2	1	3	7
13	El Entag EL Harby	5	1	3	1	6
14	El Dakhleya	6	1	3	2	6
15	Baladiyyat Al Mehalla	5	1	1	3	4
16	La Viena FC	5	0	3	2	3
17	Proxy	6	1	0	5	3
18	Mega Sport	5	0	2	3	2
19	Ismaily SC	5	0	2	3	2
20	Dayrout	5	0	0	5	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Masar	6	13	3	+10	16
2	Kahraba Ismailia	6	11	4	+7	13
3	Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat	6	8	2	+6	14
4	Haras El Hodood	5	8	2	+6	13
5	Pharco	6	8	5	+3	13
6	AL Nasr SC	6	7	4	+3	9
7	Itesalat	5	7	5	+2	9
8	El Entag EL Harby	5	7	5	+2	6
9	El Mansura	6	6	7	-1	8
10	Team	6	6	7	-1	7
11	El Seka El Hadid	6	6	9	-3	7
12	Tersana	5	4	4	0	8
13	Tanta SC	5	4	5	-1	7
14	Ismaily SC	5	4	9	-5	2
15	Baladiyyat Al Mehalla	5	3	5	-2	4
16	La Viena FC	5	3	5	-2	3
17	El Dakhleya	6	3	6	-3	6
18	Mega Sport	5	3	6	-3	2
19	Proxy	6	2	7	-5	3
20	Dayrout	5	0	13	-13	0