Prediction Audit: AL Nasr SC vs Haras El Hodood Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

AL Nasr SC

Aug 28, 2026 - 13:30

0 1.32

0 1.28

xG Accuracy: 49%

Haras El Hodood

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected AL Nasr SC at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 AL Nasr SC Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
AL Nasr SC	36.1%	24.6%	+11.6 pp	Model Edge
Draw	29.6%	31.8%	-2.2 pp	Aligned
Haras El Hodood	34.2%	43.6%	-9.4 pp	Market Higher

The statistical model estimates AL Nasr SC's win probability at 36.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.6%, a difference of 11.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on AL Nasr SC.

The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
1X2: model leaned AL Nasr SC; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on AL Nasr SC by 11.6 percentage points (24.6% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 28, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · AL Nasr SC 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Haras El Hodood 34.2%
- xG · AL Nasr SC 1.32 — Haras El Hodood 1.28
Aug 28, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · AL Nasr SC 3.73 · Draw 2.88 · Haras El Hodood 2.10
- Implied 1X2 · AL Nasr SC 24.6% · Draw 31.8% · Haras El Hodood 43.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 28, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · AL Nasr SC 3.73 · Draw 2.88 · Haras El Hodood 2.10
- Implied 1X2 · AL Nasr SC 24.6% · Draw 31.8% · Haras El Hodood 43.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 28, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (12 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

Statistical edge detected
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 14/100

Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 22, 2026 · 01:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4918642

Closing Odds 3.73

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · AL Nasr SC 0–0 Haras El Hodood

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Second League
Fixture: AL Nasr SC vs Haras El Hodood
Kickoff: 2026-08-28 13:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): AL Nasr SC 1.32 — Haras El Hodood 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Masar	6	5	1	0	16
2	Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat	6	4	2	0	14
3	Kahraba Ismailia	6	4	1	1	13
4	Haras El Hodood	5	4	1	0	13
5	Pharco	6	4	1	1	13
6	AL Nasr SC	6	2	3	1	9
7	Itesalat	5	3	0	2	9
8	Tersana	5	2	2	1	8
9	El Mansura	6	2	2	2	8
10	Team	6	2	1	3	7
11	Tanta SC	5	2	1	2	7
12	El Seka El Hadid	6	2	1	3	7
13	El Entag EL Harby	5	1	3	1	6
14	El Dakhleya	6	1	3	2	6
15	Baladiyyat Al Mehalla	5	1	1	3	4
16	La Viena FC	5	0	3	2	3
17	Proxy	6	1	0	5	3
18	Mega Sport	5	0	2	3	2
19	Ismaily SC	5	0	2	3	2
20	Dayrout	5	0	0	5	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Masar	6	13	3	+10	16
2	Kahraba Ismailia	6	11	4	+7	13
3	Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat	6	8	2	+6	14
4	Haras El Hodood	5	8	2	+6	13
5	Pharco	6	8	5	+3	13
6	AL Nasr SC	6	7	4	+3	9
7	Itesalat	5	7	5	+2	9
8	El Entag EL Harby	5	7	5	+2	6
9	El Mansura	6	6	7	-1	8
10	Team	6	6	7	-1	7
11	El Seka El Hadid	6	6	9	-3	7
12	Tersana	5	4	4	0	8
13	Tanta SC	5	4	5	-1	7
14	Ismaily SC	5	4	9	-5	2
15	Baladiyyat Al Mehalla	5	3	5	-2	4
16	La Viena FC	5	3	5	-2	3
17	El Dakhleya	6	3	6	-3	6
18	Mega Sport	5	3	6	-3	2
19	Proxy	6	2	7	-5	3
20	Dayrout	5	0	13	-13	0