Prediction Audit: Ismaily SC vs Masar Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ismaily SC

Aug 21, 2026 - 13:30

1 1.27

3 1.33

xG Accuracy: 59%

Masar

AI correctly predicted the Masar win.

The match finished 1–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Masar Masar ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Ismaily SC	33.8%	38.0%	-4.3 pp	Aligned
Draw	29.6%	34.9%	-5.2 pp	Market Higher
Masar	36.6%	27.1%	+9.5 pp	Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Masar's win probability at 36.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 27.1%, a difference of 9.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Masar win 1–3).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Masar.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Masar more conservatively (27.1% vs model 36.6%, 9.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Masar win 1–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 21, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ismaily SC 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Masar 36.6%
- xG · Ismaily SC 1.27 — Masar 1.33
Aug 21, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ismaily SC 2.41 · Draw 2.63 · Masar 3.38
- Implied 1X2 · Ismaily SC 38.0% · Draw 34.9% · Masar 27.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 21, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ismaily SC 2.41 · Draw 2.63 · Masar 3.38
- Implied 1X2 · Ismaily SC 38.0% · Draw 34.9% · Masar 27.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 21, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Masar win · 1–3
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

Statistical edge detected
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 18/100

Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 01:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4020889

Closing Odds 3.38

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Masar win · Ismaily SC 1–3 Masar

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Second League
Fixture: Ismaily SC vs Masar
Kickoff: 2026-08-21 13:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
xG (showing): Ismaily SC 1.27 — Masar 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Masar	4	4	0	0	12
2	Haras El Hodood	4	3	1	0	10
3	Pharco	4	3	1	0	10
4	Kahraba Ismailia	4	2	1	1	7
5	AL Nasr SC	4	1	3	0	6
6	El Mansura	3	2	0	1	6
7	Itesalat	3	2	0	1	6
8	Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat	3	1	2	0	5
9	Tanta SC	3	1	1	1	4
10	Baladiyyat Al Mehalla	4	1	1	2	4
11	Tersana	3	1	1	1	4
12	El Seka El Hadid	4	1	1	2	4
13	Team	3	1	0	2	3
14	Proxy	3	1	0	2	3
15	El Dakhleya	4	0	3	1	3
16	El Entag EL Harby	3	0	2	1	2
17	La Viena FC	3	0	2	1	2
18	Mega Sport	4	0	2	2	2
19	Ismaily SC	3	0	1	2	1
20	Dayrout	4	0	0	4	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Masar	4	11	2	+9	12
2	Kahraba Ismailia	4	7	3	+4	7
3	Haras El Hodood	4	6	2	+4	10
4	Pharco	4	5	1	+4	10
5	AL Nasr SC	4	4	2	+2	6
6	El Mansura	3	4	3	+1	6
7	Itesalat	3	4	3	+1	6
8	El Seka El Hadid	4	4	6	-2	4
9	Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat	3	3	1	+2	5
10	Baladiyyat Al Mehalla	4	3	4	-1	4
11	Team	3	3	4	-1	3
12	El Entag EL Harby	3	3	4	-1	2
13	Ismaily SC	3	3	6	-3	1
14	Tanta SC	3	2	2	0	4
15	Proxy	3	2	4	-2	3
16	Mega Sport	4	2	4	-2	2
17	Tersana	3	1	2	-1	4
18	La Viena FC	3	1	2	-1	2
19	El Dakhleya	4	0	3	-3	3
20	Dayrout	4	0	10	-10	0