Prediction Audit: Dayrout vs Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dayrout

Aug 21, 2026 - 13:30

0 1.37

2 1.23

xG Accuracy: 56%

Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat

The model missed the final outcome (Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat win 0–2).

The model had projected Dayrout at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Dayrout Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Dayrout	38.5%	28.6%	+9.9 pp	Model Higher
Draw	29.6%	37.7%	-8.1 pp	Market Higher
Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat	31.9%	33.7%	-1.7 pp	Aligned

The statistical model estimates Dayrout's win probability at 38.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 28.6%, a difference of 9.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Dayrout.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
1X2: model leaned Dayrout; match finished Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Dayrout by 9.9 percentage points (28.6% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 21, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Dayrout 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 31.9%
- xG · Dayrout 1.37 — Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 1.23
Aug 21, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Dayrout 3.20 · Draw 2.43 · Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 2.72
- Implied 1X2 · Dayrout 28.6% · Draw 37.7% · Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 33.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 21, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Dayrout 3.20 · Draw 2.43 · Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 2.72
- Implied 1X2 · Dayrout 28.6% · Draw 37.7% · Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 33.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 21, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat win · 0–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

Statistical edge detected
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 17/100

Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 01:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4020832

Closing Odds 3.2

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat win · Dayrout 0–2 Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Second League
Fixture: Dayrout vs Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat
Kickoff: 2026-08-21 13:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
xG (showing): Dayrout 1.37 — Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Masar	6	5	1	0	16
2	Haras El Hodood	6	4	2	0	14
3	Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat	6	4	2	0	14
4	Kahraba Ismailia	6	4	1	1	13
5	Pharco	6	4	1	1	13
6	Itesalat	6	4	0	2	12
7	AL Nasr SC	6	2	3	1	9
8	Tersana	6	2	3	1	9
9	El Mansura	6	2	2	2	8
10	Tanta SC	6	2	2	2	8
11	El Entag EL Harby	6	1	4	1	7
12	Team	6	2	1	3	7
13	El Seka El Hadid	6	2	1	3	7
14	El Dakhleya	6	1	3	2	6
15	Baladiyyat Al Mehalla	6	1	2	3	5
16	Ismaily SC	6	1	2	3	5
17	La Viena FC	6	0	3	3	3
18	Proxy	6	1	0	5	3
19	Mega Sport	6	0	2	4	2
20	Dayrout	6	0	1	5	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Masar	6	13	3	+10	16
2	Kahraba Ismailia	6	11	4	+7	13
3	Haras El Hodood	6	8	2	+6	14
4	Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat	6	8	2	+6	14
5	Pharco	6	8	5	+3	13
6	Itesalat	6	8	5	+3	12
7	AL Nasr SC	6	7	4	+3	9
8	El Entag EL Harby	6	7	5	+2	7
9	Ismaily SC	6	7	11	-4	5
10	El Mansura	6	6	7	-1	8
11	Team	6	6	7	-1	7
12	El Seka El Hadid	6	6	9	-3	7
13	Tersana	6	5	5	0	9
14	Mega Sport	6	5	9	-4	2
15	Tanta SC	6	4	5	-1	8
16	Baladiyyat Al Mehalla	6	4	6	-2	5
17	El Dakhleya	6	3	6	-3	6
18	La Viena FC	6	3	6	-3	3
19	Proxy	6	2	7	-5	3
20	Dayrout	6	0	13	-13	1