Prediction Audit: El Seka El Hadid vs Tersana Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

El Seka El Hadid

Aug 21, 2026 - 13:30

0 1.28

1 1.32

xG Accuracy: 64%

Tersana

AI correctly predicted the Tersana win.

The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Tersana Tersana ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
El Seka El Hadid	34.2%	38.4%	-4.1 pp	Aligned
Draw	29.6%	34.9%	-5.2 pp	Market Higher
Tersana	36.1%	26.8%	+9.3 pp	Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Tersana's win probability at 36.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 26.8%, a difference of 9.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Tersana win 0–1).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Tersana.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Tersana more conservatively (26.8% vs model 36.1%, 9.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Tersana win 0–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 21, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · El Seka El Hadid 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Tersana 36.1%
- xG · El Seka El Hadid 1.28 — Tersana 1.32
Aug 21, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · El Seka El Hadid 2.39 · Draw 2.63 · Tersana 3.42
- Implied 1X2 · El Seka El Hadid 38.4% · Draw 34.9% · Tersana 26.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 21, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · El Seka El Hadid 2.39 · Draw 2.63 · Tersana 3.42
- Implied 1X2 · El Seka El Hadid 38.4% · Draw 34.9% · Tersana 26.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 21, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Tersana win · 0–1
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

Statistical edge detected
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 18/100

Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 01:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4020772

Closing Odds 3.42

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Tersana win · El Seka El Hadid 0–1 Tersana

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Second League
Fixture: El Seka El Hadid vs Tersana
Kickoff: 2026-08-21 13:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
xG (showing): El Seka El Hadid 1.28 — Tersana 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Masar	6	5	1	0	16
2	Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat	6	4	2	0	14
3	Kahraba Ismailia	6	4	1	1	13
4	Haras El Hodood	5	4	1	0	13
5	Pharco	6	4	1	1	13
6	AL Nasr SC	6	2	3	1	9
7	Itesalat	5	3	0	2	9
8	Tersana	5	2	2	1	8
9	El Mansura	6	2	2	2	8
10	Team	6	2	1	3	7
11	Tanta SC	5	2	1	2	7
12	El Seka El Hadid	6	2	1	3	7
13	El Entag EL Harby	5	1	3	1	6
14	El Dakhleya	6	1	3	2	6
15	Baladiyyat Al Mehalla	5	1	1	3	4
16	La Viena FC	5	0	3	2	3
17	Proxy	6	1	0	5	3
18	Mega Sport	5	0	2	3	2
19	Ismaily SC	5	0	2	3	2
20	Dayrout	5	0	0	5	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Masar	6	13	3	+10	16
2	Kahraba Ismailia	6	11	4	+7	13
3	Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat	6	8	2	+6	14
4	Haras El Hodood	5	8	2	+6	13
5	Pharco	6	8	5	+3	13
6	AL Nasr SC	6	7	4	+3	9
7	Itesalat	5	7	5	+2	9
8	El Entag EL Harby	5	7	5	+2	6
9	El Mansura	6	6	7	-1	8
10	Team	6	6	7	-1	7
11	El Seka El Hadid	6	6	9	-3	7
12	Tersana	5	4	4	0	8
13	Tanta SC	5	4	5	-1	7
14	Ismaily SC	5	4	9	-5	2
15	Baladiyyat Al Mehalla	5	3	5	-2	4
16	La Viena FC	5	3	5	-2	3
17	El Dakhleya	6	3	6	-3	6
18	Mega Sport	5	3	6	-3	2
19	Proxy	6	2	7	-5	3
20	Dayrout	5	0	13	-13	0