The model missed the final outcome (Budafoki LC win 1–3).
The model had projected Budaörs at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Budaörs Budafoki LC ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budaörs | 36.1% | 29.5% | +6.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.1% | +4.5 pp | Aligned |
| Budafoki LC | 34.2% | 45.4% | -11.1 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Budafoki LC's win probability at 45.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 11.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Budafoki LC win 1–3.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Budafoki LC than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Budaörs; match finished Budafoki LC
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Budaörs by 11.1 percentage points (47.2% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Budaörs 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Budafoki LC 34.2%
- xG · Budaörs 1.32 — Budafoki LC 1.28
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 15:08 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Budaörs 3.01 · Draw 3.54 · Budafoki LC 1.96
- Implied 1X2 · Budaörs 29.5% · Draw 25.1% · Budafoki LC 45.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Budaörs 3.01 · Draw 3.54 · Budafoki LC 1.96
- Implied 1X2 · Budaörs 29.5% · Draw 25.1% · Budafoki LC 45.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Budafoki LC win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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NB III - Southwest — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pécsi MFC | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
| 2 | Budafoki LC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Kaposvar | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 |
| 4 | PTE-PEAC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 | Majosi | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | MTK Budapest II | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Ferencváros II | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Siofok | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Budaörs | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 10 | Érdi VSE | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | Iváncsa | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 12 | Dunaharaszti MTK | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 13 | Sárbogárd | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 14 | Paksi SE II | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 15 | Szekszárd | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| 15 | Dunaujvaros FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pécsi MFC | 8 | 27 | 2 | +25 | 24 |
| 2 | MTK Budapest II | 7 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 | Kaposvar | 7 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 15 |
| 4 | Érdi VSE | 7 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 9 |
| 5 | Majosi | 8 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 13 |
| 6 | Ferencváros II | 7 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 11 |
| 7 | Budaörs | 8 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 10 |
| 8 | Budafoki LC | 7 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 16 |
| 9 | PTE-PEAC | 7 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 14 |
| 10 | Iváncsa | 7 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 9 |
| 11 | Siofok | 7 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 11 |
| 12 | Dunaharaszti MTK | 8 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Paksi SE II | 8 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 3 |
| 14 | Sárbogárd | 8 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 4 |
| 15 | Szekszárd | 8 | 3 | 30 | -27 | 0 |
| 16 | Dunaujvaros FC | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
