Prediction Audit: Paksi SE II vs Iváncsa Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Paksi SE II

Aug 15, 2026 - 09:00

0 1.21

2 1.39

xG Accuracy: 61%

Iváncsa

AI correctly predicted the Iváncsa win.

The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Iváncsa Iváncsa ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Iváncsa win 0–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 09, 2026 · 01:09 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Paksi SE II 1.21 — Iváncsa 1.39
Aug 15, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Iváncsa win · 0–2
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Pending

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation pending

Market Compatibility 100/100

Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 01:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3338362

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Iváncsa win · Paksi SE II 0–2 Iváncsa

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: NB III - Southwest
Fixture: Paksi SE II vs Iváncsa
Kickoff: 2026-08-15 09:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.5%
xG (showing): Paksi SE II 1.21 — Iváncsa 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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NB III - Southwest — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Pécsi MFC	10	9	1	0	28
2	Kaposvar	9	5	1	3	16
3	PTE-PEAC	9	4	4	1	16
4	Budafoki LC	9	5	1	3	16
5	Ferencváros II	9	4	3	2	15
6	Iváncsa	9	5	0	4	15
7	Siofok	9	4	2	3	14
8	Majosi	9	4	2	3	14
9	Dunaharaszti MTK	10	4	2	4	14
10	MTK Budapest II	8	4	0	4	12
11	Érdi VSE	9	3	3	3	12
12	Budaörs	9	3	2	4	11
13	Paksi SE II	10	1	3	6	6
14	Sárbogárd	10	1	2	7	5
15	Szekszárd	9	0	0	9	0
15	Dunaujvaros FC	1	0	0	1	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Pécsi MFC	10	30	4	+26	28
2	Kaposvar	9	23	14	+9	16
3	MTK Budapest II	8	21	14	+7	12
4	Iváncsa	9	21	20	+1	15
5	Érdi VSE	9	21	21	0	12
6	Ferencváros II	9	19	13	+6	15
7	Paksi SE II	10	19	23	-4	6
8	Majosi	9	18	18	0	14
9	Budafoki LC	9	17	12	+5	16
10	Dunaharaszti MTK	10	17	19	-2	14
11	Siofok	9	16	11	+5	14
12	Budaörs	9	16	26	-10	11
13	PTE-PEAC	9	15	9	+6	16
14	Sárbogárd	10	9	24	-15	5
15	Szekszárd	9	4	38	-34	0
16	Dunaujvaros FC	1	0	3	-3	0