Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB III - Southeast / ESMTK vs Vasas II

Prediction Audit: ESMTK vs Vasas II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

ESMTK ESMTK
Sep 06, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.46
0 1.14
xG Accuracy: 63%
Vasas II Vasas II

AI correctly predicted the ESMTK win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 ESMTK ESMTK ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices ESMTK higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: ESMTK -5.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
ESMTK 42.9% 48.6% -5.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.2% 24.8% +4.4 pp Aligned
Vasas II 27.9% 26.6% +1.3 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates ESMTK's win probability at 48.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.9%, a difference of 5.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (ESMTK win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on ESMTK. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 2–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced ESMTK higher (48.6% vs model 42.9%, 5.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (ESMTK win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · ESMTK 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · Vasas II 27.9%
    • xG · ESMTK 1.46 — Vasas II 1.14
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 13:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · ESMTK 1.83 · Draw 3.59 · Vasas II 3.34
    • Implied 1X2 · ESMTK 48.6% · Draw 24.8% · Vasas II 26.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · ESMTK 1.83 · Draw 3.59 · Vasas II 3.34
    • Implied 1X2 · ESMTK 48.6% · Draw 24.8% · Vasas II 26.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result ESMTK win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 71/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6362105

Closing Odds 1.83
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result ESMTK win · ESMTK 2–0 Vasas II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: NB III - Southeast
  • Fixture: ESMTK vs Vasas II
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · Away 27.9%
  • xG (showing): ESMTK 1.46 — Vasas II 1.14 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 36.7% · Probability edge: +15.1 pts · Est. EV: +29.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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NB III - Southeast NB III - Southeast — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gyulai Termál 9 9 0 0 27
2 III. Kerületi TUE 9 8 0 1 24
3 Újpest II 9 5 2 2 17
4 ESMTK 8 4 3 1 15
5 Szeged-Csanád II 9 4 3 2 15
6 Vasas II 9 4 2 3 14
7 Csepel 9 3 4 2 13
8 Monori Se 9 3 4 2 13
9 Szolnoki MAV FC 9 3 4 2 13
10 Dabas 8 3 1 4 10
11 Honvéd II 9 2 2 5 8
12 Bekescsaba 1912 8 1 4 3 7
13 Hódmezővásárhely 9 1 3 5 6
14 BKV Előre 8 1 1 6 4
15 Sándorfalva 9 1 1 7 4
16 Szegedi VSE 9 0 2 7 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Gyulai Termál 9 33 5 +28 27
2 Újpest II 9 25 14 +11 17
3 Vasas II 9 20 11 +9 14
4 Csepel 9 20 15 +5 13
5 Szolnoki MAV FC 9 20 20 0 13
6 Monori Se 9 19 15 +4 13
7 Szeged-Csanád II 9 18 13 +5 15
8 ESMTK 8 17 9 +8 15
9 Honvéd II 9 17 15 +2 8
10 III. Kerületi TUE 9 15 3 +12 24
11 Dabas 8 12 18 -6 10
12 Szegedi VSE 9 11 30 -19 2
13 Bekescsaba 1912 8 10 14 -4 7
14 Hódmezővásárhely 9 10 21 -11 6
15 BKV Előre 8 7 29 -22 4
16 Sándorfalva 9 6 28 -22 4
NB III - Southeast Hungary. NB III - Southeast Predictions