Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB III - Southeast / Vasas II vs Újpest II

Prediction Audit: Vasas II vs Újpest II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Vasas II Vasas II
Aug 16, 2026 - 09:00
3 1.37
5 1.23
xG Accuracy: 23%
Újpest II Újpest II

The model missed the final outcome (Újpest II win 3–5).

The model had projected Vasas II at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Vasas II Újpest II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-5 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Draw +7.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Vasas II 38.5% 44.8% -6.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 22.6% +7.0 pp Model Higher
Újpest II 31.9% 32.6% -0.7 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 22.6%, a difference of 7.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Újpest II win 3–5.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (8 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Vasas II; match finished Újpest II

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Vasas II by 7.0 percentage points (31.5% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Vasas II 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Újpest II 31.9%
    • xG · Vasas II 1.37 — Újpest II 1.23
  2. Aug 16, 2026 · 08:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Vasas II 1.98 · Draw 3.93 · Újpest II 2.72
    • Implied 1X2 · Vasas II 44.8% · Draw 22.6% · Újpest II 32.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 16, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Vasas II 1.98 · Draw 3.93 · Újpest II 2.72
    • Implied 1X2 · Vasas II 44.8% · Draw 22.6% · Újpest II 32.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 16, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Újpest II win · 3–5
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 65/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 00:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3599963

Closing Odds 3.93
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Újpest II win · Vasas II 3–5 Újpest II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: NB III - Southeast
  • Fixture: Vasas II vs Újpest II
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 09:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Vasas II 1.37 — Újpest II 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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NB III - Southeast NB III - Southeast — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gyulai Termál 9 9 0 0 27
2 III. Kerületi TUE 9 8 0 1 24
3 Újpest II 9 5 2 2 17
4 ESMTK 8 4 3 1 15
5 Szeged-Csanád II 9 4 3 2 15
6 Vasas II 9 4 2 3 14
7 Csepel 9 3 4 2 13
8 Monori Se 9 3 4 2 13
9 Szolnoki MAV FC 9 3 4 2 13
10 Dabas 8 3 1 4 10
11 Honvéd II 9 2 2 5 8
12 Bekescsaba 1912 8 1 4 3 7
13 Hódmezővásárhely 9 1 3 5 6
14 BKV Előre 8 1 1 6 4
15 Sándorfalva 9 1 1 7 4
16 Szegedi VSE 9 0 2 7 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Gyulai Termál 9 33 5 +28 27
2 Újpest II 9 25 14 +11 17
3 Vasas II 9 20 11 +9 14
4 Csepel 9 20 15 +5 13
5 Szolnoki MAV FC 9 20 20 0 13
6 Monori Se 9 19 15 +4 13
7 Szeged-Csanád II 9 18 13 +5 15
8 ESMTK 8 17 9 +8 15
9 Honvéd II 9 17 15 +2 8
10 III. Kerületi TUE 9 15 3 +12 24
11 Dabas 8 12 18 -6 10
12 Szegedi VSE 9 11 30 -19 2
13 Bekescsaba 1912 8 10 14 -4 7
14 Hódmezővásárhely 9 10 21 -11 6
15 BKV Előre 8 7 29 -22 4
16 Sándorfalva 9 6 28 -22 4
NB III - Southeast Hungary. NB III - Southeast Predictions