AI correctly predicted the Gyulai Termál win.
The match finished 2–4, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Gyulai Termál Gyulai Termál ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-4 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKV Előre | 27.1% | 9.7% | +17.4 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.1% | 13.8% | +15.3 pp | Model Edge |
| Gyulai Termál | 43.8% | 76.6% | -32.7 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Gyulai Termál's win probability at 76.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.8%, a difference of 32.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Gyulai Termál win 2–4).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
- Gyulai Termál attacking xG significantly stronger (1.48 vs 1.12)
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Gyulai Termál higher (76.5% vs model 43.8%, 32.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Gyulai Termál win 2–4).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 12, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · BKV Előre 27.1% · Draw 29.1% · Gyulai Termál 43.9%
- xG · BKV Előre 1.12 — Gyulai Termál 1.48
-
Aug 12, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · BKV Előre 9.20 · Draw 6.45 · Gyulai Termál 1.16
- Implied 1X2 · BKV Előre 9.7% · Draw 13.8% · Gyulai Termál 76.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 12, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · BKV Előre 9.20 · Draw 6.45 · Gyulai Termál 1.16
- Implied 1X2 · BKV Előre 9.7% · Draw 13.8% · Gyulai Termál 76.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 12, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Gyulai Termál win · 2–4
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (33 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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NB III - Southeast — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gyulai Termál | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 27 |
| 2 | III. Kerületi TUE | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 24 |
| 3 | Újpest II | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 4 | ESMTK | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Szeged-Csanád II | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Vasas II | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Csepel | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Monori Se | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Szolnoki MAV FC | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| 10 | Dabas | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 11 | Honvéd II | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 12 | Bekescsaba 1912 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 13 | Hódmezővásárhely | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 14 | BKV Előre | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 15 | Sándorfalva | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| 16 | Szegedi VSE | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gyulai Termál | 9 | 33 | 5 | +28 | 27 |
| 2 | Újpest II | 9 | 25 | 14 | +11 | 17 |
| 3 | Vasas II | 9 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 14 |
| 4 | Csepel | 9 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 13 |
| 5 | Szolnoki MAV FC | 9 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 13 |
| 6 | Monori Se | 9 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 13 |
| 7 | Szeged-Csanád II | 9 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 15 |
| 8 | ESMTK | 8 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 15 |
| 9 | Honvéd II | 9 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 | III. Kerületi TUE | 9 | 15 | 3 | +12 | 24 |
| 11 | Dabas | 8 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 10 |
| 12 | Szegedi VSE | 9 | 11 | 30 | -19 | 2 |
| 13 | Bekescsaba 1912 | 8 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | Hódmezővásárhely | 9 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 6 |
| 15 | BKV Előre | 8 | 7 | 29 | -22 | 4 |
| 16 | Sándorfalva | 9 | 6 | 28 | -22 | 4 |
