Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB III - Southeast / Újpest II vs BKV Előre

Prediction Audit: Újpest II vs BKV Előre Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Újpest II Újpest II
Jul 26, 2026 - 09:00
6 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 19%
BKV Előre BKV Előre

AI correctly predicted the Újpest II win.

The match finished 6–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Újpest II Újpest II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 6-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Újpest II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Újpest II -11.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Újpest II 38.9% 50.0% -11.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.8% 24.3% +4.5 pp Aligned
BKV Előre 32.4% 25.7% +6.7 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Újpest II's win probability at 50.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.9%, a difference of 11.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Újpest II win 6–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Újpest II than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Újpest II higher (50.0% vs model 38.9%, 11.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Újpest II win 6–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 26, 2026 · 19:21 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Újpest II 38.9% · Draw 28.7% · BKV Előre 32.4%
    • xG · Újpest II 1.32 — BKV Előre 1.28
  2. Jul 26, 2026 · 08:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Újpest II 1.80 · Draw 3.70 · BKV Előre 3.50
    • Implied 1X2 · Újpest II 50.0% · Draw 24.3% · BKV Előre 25.7%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. Jul 26, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Újpest II 1.80 · Draw 3.70 · BKV Előre 3.50
    • Implied 1X2 · Újpest II 50.0% · Draw 24.3% · BKV Előre 25.7%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. Jul 26, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Újpest II win · 6–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 44/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1454095

Closing Odds 1.8
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Újpest II win · Újpest II 6–0 BKV Előre
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: NB III – Southeast
  • Fixture: Újpest II vs BKV Előre
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-26 09:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 50.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 0.0%
  • xG (showing): Újpest II 1.32 — BKV Előre 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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NB III - Southeast NB III - Southeast — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Gyulai Termál 9 9 0 0 27
2 III. Kerületi TUE 9 8 0 1 24
3 Újpest II 9 5 2 2 17
4 ESMTK 8 4 3 1 15
5 Szeged-Csanád II 9 4 3 2 15
6 Vasas II 9 4 2 3 14
7 Csepel 9 3 4 2 13
8 Monori Se 9 3 4 2 13
9 Szolnoki MAV FC 9 3 4 2 13
10 Dabas 8 3 1 4 10
11 Honvéd II 9 2 2 5 8
12 Bekescsaba 1912 8 1 4 3 7
13 Hódmezővásárhely 9 1 3 5 6
14 BKV Előre 8 1 1 6 4
15 Sándorfalva 9 1 1 7 4
16 Szegedi VSE 9 0 2 7 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Gyulai Termál 9 33 5 +28 27
2 Újpest II 9 25 14 +11 17
3 Vasas II 9 20 11 +9 14
4 Csepel 9 20 15 +5 13
5 Szolnoki MAV FC 9 20 20 0 13
6 Monori Se 9 19 15 +4 13
7 Szeged-Csanád II 9 18 13 +5 15
8 ESMTK 8 17 9 +8 15
9 Honvéd II 9 17 15 +2 8
10 III. Kerületi TUE 9 15 3 +12 24
11 Dabas 8 12 18 -6 10
12 Szegedi VSE 9 11 30 -19 2
13 Bekescsaba 1912 8 10 14 -4 7
14 Hódmezővásárhely 9 10 21 -11 6
15 BKV Előre 8 7 29 -22 4
16 Sándorfalva 9 6 28 -22 4
NB III - Southeast Hungary. NB III - Southeast Predictions