Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB III - Northwest / Haladás VSE vs Pápai Perutz

Prediction Audit: Haladás VSE vs Pápai Perutz Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sep 27, 2026 - 16:00
4 1.53
0 1.07
xG Accuracy: 38%

AI correctly predicted the Haladás VSE win.

The match finished 4–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Haladás VSE Haladás VSE ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Haladás VSE attacking xG significantly stronger (1.53 vs 1.07)

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Haladás VSE win 4–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 21, 2026 · 02:07 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Haladás VSE 1.53 — Pápai Perutz 1.07
  2. Sep 27, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Haladás VSE win · 4–0
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10105573

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Haladás VSE win · Haladás VSE 4–0 Pápai Perutz
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: NB III - Northwest
  • Fixture: Haladás VSE vs Pápai Perutz
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 46.3% · Draw 28.7% · Away 24.9%
  • xG (showing): Haladás VSE 1.53 — Pápai Perutz 1.07 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.0% · No 46.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.0% · No 46.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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NB III - Northwest NB III - Northwest — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Haladás VSE 8 6 2 0 20
2 Tatabánya 9 6 2 1 20
3 Dorogi FC 8 6 1 1 19
4 Sárisápi Bányász 9 5 1 3 16
5 MTE 1904 8 4 3 1 15
6 Bicskei 9 5 0 4 15
7 Komárom 9 4 3 2 15
8 Gyori ETO II 9 4 2 3 14
9 SC Sopron 9 3 3 3 12
10 Zalaegerszegi TE II 9 3 1 5 10
11 Puskás II 8 3 0 5 9
12 Veszprém 9 2 3 4 9
13 Pápai Perutz 8 2 2 4 8
14 Király SZE 9 1 3 5 6
15 Szombathelyi Haladas 1 0 1 0 1
15 Balatonalmádi 8 1 0 7 3
16 1908 SZAC 9 0 2 7 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dorogi FC 8 26 6 +20 19
2 Haladás VSE 8 24 7 +17 20
3 Tatabánya 9 23 8 +15 20
4 Bicskei 9 23 20 +3 15
5 Komárom 9 16 13 +3 15
6 Sárisápi Bányász 9 15 15 0 16
7 Zalaegerszegi TE II 9 15 17 -2 10
8 MTE 1904 8 14 7 +7 15
9 Gyori ETO II 9 14 10 +4 14
10 Puskás II 8 14 17 -3 9
11 Veszprém 9 14 21 -7 9
12 SC Sopron 9 12 13 -1 12
13 Király SZE 9 9 17 -8 6
14 Pápai Perutz 8 7 14 -7 8
15 Balatonalmádi 8 7 26 -19 3
16 1908 SZAC 9 5 27 -22 2
17 Szombathelyi Haladas 1 1 1 0 1