Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB III - Northwest / SC Sopron vs Balatonalmádi

Prediction Audit: SC Sopron vs Balatonalmádi Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

SC Sopron SC Sopron
Sep 05, 2026 - 15:30
1 1.29
2 1.31
xG Accuracy: 76%
Balatonalmádi Balatonalmádi

AI correctly predicted the Balatonalmádi win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Balatonalmádi Balatonalmádi ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Balatonalmádi win 1–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 30, 2026 · 03:34 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · SC Sopron 1.29 — Balatonalmádi 1.31
  2. Sep 05, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Balatonalmádi win · 1–2
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 03:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6160048

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Balatonalmádi win · SC Sopron 1–2 Balatonalmádi
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: NB III - Northwest
  • Fixture: SC Sopron vs Balatonalmádi
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): SC Sopron 1.29 — Balatonalmádi 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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NB III - Northwest NB III - Northwest — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Tatabánya 11 8 2 1 26
2 Haladás VSE 10 7 3 0 24
3 Dorogi FC 10 7 2 1 23
4 Sárisápi Bányász 11 6 2 3 20
5 SC Sopron 11 5 3 3 18
6 Bicskei 11 6 0 5 18
7 MTE 1904 10 4 3 3 15
8 Komárom 11 4 3 4 15
9 Gyori ETO II 10 4 2 4 14
10 Puskás II 10 4 1 5 13
11 Zalaegerszegi TE II 11 4 1 6 13
12 Pápai Perutz 11 3 2 6 11
13 Veszprém 10 2 4 4 10
14 Király SZE 10 1 4 5 7
15 Szombathelyi Haladas 1 0 1 0 1
15 Balatonalmádi 10 1 2 7 5
16 1908 SZAC 11 0 2 9 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Haladás VSE 10 30 9 +21 24
2 Dorogi FC 10 29 8 +21 23
3 Tatabánya 11 28 8 +20 26
4 Bicskei 11 26 23 +3 18
5 Puskás II 10 19 19 0 13
6 SC Sopron 11 18 13 +5 18
7 Sárisápi Bányász 11 18 17 +1 20
8 Zalaegerszegi TE II 11 18 21 -3 13
9 Komárom 11 16 18 -2 15
10 MTE 1904 10 15 12 +3 15
11 Gyori ETO II 10 15 12 +3 14
12 Veszprém 10 15 22 -7 10
13 Király SZE 10 11 19 -8 7
14 Balatonalmádi 10 10 29 -19 5
15 Pápai Perutz 11 9 21 -12 11
16 1908 SZAC 11 6 32 -26 2
17 Szombathelyi Haladas 1 1 1 0 1
NB III - Northwest Hungary. NB III - Northwest Predictions