Prediction Audit: Komárom vs MTE 1904 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Komárom

Aug 29, 2026 - 15:30

0 1.34

0 1.26

xG Accuracy: 49%

MTE 1904

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Komárom at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Komárom Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
1X2: model leaned Komárom; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 23, 2026 · 04:05 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Komárom 1.34 — MTE 1904 1.26
Aug 29, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Pending

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation pending

Market Compatibility 100/100

Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 04:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5152998

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Komárom 0–0 MTE 1904

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: NB III - Northwest
Fixture: Komárom vs MTE 1904
Kickoff: 2026-08-29 15:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
xG (showing): Komárom 1.34 — MTE 1904 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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NB III - Northwest — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Tatabánya	11	8	2	1	26
2	Haladás VSE	10	7	3	0	24
3	Dorogi FC	10	7	2	1	23
4	Sárisápi Bányász	11	6	2	3	20
5	SC Sopron	11	5	3	3	18
6	Bicskei	11	6	0	5	18
7	MTE 1904	10	4	3	3	15
8	Komárom	11	4	3	4	15
9	Gyori ETO II	10	4	2	4	14
10	Puskás II	10	4	1	5	13
11	Zalaegerszegi TE II	11	4	1	6	13
12	Pápai Perutz	11	3	2	6	11
13	Veszprém	10	2	4	4	10
14	Király SZE	10	1	4	5	7
15	Szombathelyi Haladas	1	0	1	0	1
15	Balatonalmádi	10	1	2	7	5
16	1908 SZAC	11	0	2	9	2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Haladás VSE	10	30	9	+21	24
2	Dorogi FC	10	29	8	+21	23
3	Tatabánya	11	28	8	+20	26
4	Bicskei	11	26	23	+3	18
5	Puskás II	10	19	19	0	13
6	SC Sopron	11	18	13	+5	18
7	Sárisápi Bányász	11	18	17	+1	20
8	Zalaegerszegi TE II	11	18	21	-3	13
9	Komárom	11	16	18	-2	15
10	MTE 1904	10	15	12	+3	15
11	Gyori ETO II	10	15	12	+3	14
12	Veszprém	10	15	22	-7	10
13	Király SZE	10	11	19	-8	7
14	Balatonalmádi	10	10	29	-19	5
15	Pápai Perutz	11	9	21	-12	11
16	1908 SZAC	11	6	32	-26	2
17	Szombathelyi Haladas	1	1	1	0	1