AI correctly predicted the Tatabánya win.
The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Tatabánya Tatabánya ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatabánya | 43.4% | 73.9% | -30.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.1% | 15.6% | +13.5 pp | Model Edge |
| Sárisápi Bányász | 27.5% | 10.5% | +17.0 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Tatabánya's win probability at 73.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 43.4%, a difference of 30.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Tatabánya win 3–0).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Tatabánya higher (73.9% vs model 43.4%, 30.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Tatabánya win 3–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 26, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Tatabánya 43.3% · Draw 29.2% · Sárisápi Bányász 27.5%
- xG · Tatabánya 1.47 — Sárisápi Bányász 1.13
-
Aug 26, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Tatabánya 1.20 · Draw 5.67 · Sárisápi Bányász 8.45
- Implied 1X2 · Tatabánya 73.9% · Draw 15.6% · Sárisápi Bányász 10.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 26, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Tatabánya 1.20 · Draw 5.67 · Sárisápi Bányász 8.45
- Implied 1X2 · Tatabánya 73.9% · Draw 15.6% · Sárisápi Bányász 10.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 26, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Tatabánya win · 3–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (31 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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NB III - Northwest — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haladás VSE | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Tatabánya | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 3 | Dorogi FC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 4 | Sárisápi Bányász | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | MTE 1904 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Bicskei | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 7 | Komárom | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | Gyori ETO II | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | SC Sopron | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 10 | Zalaegerszegi TE II | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 11 | Puskás II | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 12 | Veszprém | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 13 | Pápai Perutz | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 14 | Király SZE | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 15 | Szombathelyi Haladas | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | Balatonalmádi | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
| 16 | 1908 SZAC | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dorogi FC | 8 | 26 | 6 | +20 | 19 |
| 2 | Haladás VSE | 8 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 20 |
| 3 | Tatabánya | 9 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 20 |
| 4 | Bicskei | 9 | 23 | 20 | +3 | 15 |
| 5 | Komárom | 9 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 15 |
| 6 | Sárisápi Bányász | 9 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 16 |
| 7 | Zalaegerszegi TE II | 9 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 10 |
| 8 | MTE 1904 | 8 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 15 |
| 9 | Gyori ETO II | 9 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 14 |
| 10 | Puskás II | 8 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Veszprém | 9 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 9 |
| 12 | SC Sopron | 9 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 | Király SZE | 9 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 6 |
| 14 | Pápai Perutz | 8 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 | Balatonalmádi | 8 | 7 | 26 | -19 | 3 |
| 16 | 1908 SZAC | 9 | 5 | 27 | -22 | 2 |
| 17 | Szombathelyi Haladas | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
