Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB III - Northwest / MTE 1904 vs Sárisápi Bányász

Prediction Audit: MTE 1904 vs Sárisápi Bányász Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

MTE 1904 MTE 1904
Jul 25, 2026 - 15:30
3 1.36
0 1.24
xG Accuracy: 45%
Sárisápi Bányász Sárisápi Bányász

AI correctly predicted the MTE 1904 win.

The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 MTE 1904 MTE 1904 ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices MTE 1904 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: MTE 1904 -23.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
MTE 1904 38.0% 61.2% -23.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 22.4% +7.2 pp Model Higher
Sárisápi Bányász 32.4% 16.4% +16.0 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates MTE 1904's win probability at 61.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 23.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (MTE 1904 win 3–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced MTE 1904 higher (61.2% vs model 38.0%, 23.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (MTE 1904 win 3–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 22:18 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · MTE 1904 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Sárisápi Bányász 32.4%
    • xG · MTE 1904 1.36 — Sárisápi Bányász 1.24
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · MTE 1904 1.45 · Draw 3.97 · Sárisápi Bányász 5.42
    • Implied 1X2 · MTE 1904 61.2% · Draw 22.4% · Sárisápi Bányász 16.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · MTE 1904 1.45 · Draw 3.97 · Sárisápi Bányász 5.42
    • Implied 1X2 · MTE 1904 61.2% · Draw 22.4% · Sárisápi Bányász 16.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result MTE 1904 win · 3–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (23 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1456419

Closing Odds 1.45
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result MTE 1904 win · MTE 1904 3–0 Sárisápi Bányász
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: NB III – Northwest
  • Fixture: MTE 1904 vs Sárisápi Bányász
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.0% · Draw 33.0% · Away 33.0%
  • xG (showing): MTE 1904 1.36 — Sárisápi Bányász 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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NB III - Northwest NB III - Northwest — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Haladás VSE 8 6 2 0 20
2 Tatabánya 9 6 2 1 20
3 Dorogi FC 8 6 1 1 19
4 Sárisápi Bányász 9 5 1 3 16
5 MTE 1904 8 4 3 1 15
6 Bicskei 9 5 0 4 15
7 Komárom 9 4 3 2 15
8 Gyori ETO II 9 4 2 3 14
9 SC Sopron 9 3 3 3 12
10 Zalaegerszegi TE II 9 3 1 5 10
11 Puskás II 8 3 0 5 9
12 Veszprém 9 2 3 4 9
13 Pápai Perutz 8 2 2 4 8
14 Király SZE 9 1 3 5 6
15 Szombathelyi Haladas 1 0 1 0 1
15 Balatonalmádi 8 1 0 7 3
16 1908 SZAC 9 0 2 7 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dorogi FC 8 26 6 +20 19
2 Haladás VSE 8 24 7 +17 20
3 Tatabánya 9 23 8 +15 20
4 Bicskei 9 23 20 +3 15
5 Komárom 9 16 13 +3 15
6 Sárisápi Bányász 9 15 15 0 16
7 Zalaegerszegi TE II 9 15 17 -2 10
8 MTE 1904 8 14 7 +7 15
9 Gyori ETO II 9 14 10 +4 14
10 Puskás II 8 14 17 -3 9
11 Veszprém 9 14 21 -7 9
12 SC Sopron 9 12 13 -1 12
13 Király SZE 9 9 17 -8 6
14 Pápai Perutz 8 7 14 -7 8
15 Balatonalmádi 8 7 26 -19 3
16 1908 SZAC 9 5 27 -22 2
17 Szombathelyi Haladas 1 1 1 0 1
NB III - Northwest Hungary. NB III - Northwest Predictions