Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB III - Northwest / Gyori ETO II vs Tatabánya

Prediction Audit: Gyori ETO II vs Tatabánya Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Gyori ETO II Gyori ETO II
Jul 26, 2026 - 09:00
2 1.14
1 1.46
xG Accuracy: 70%
Tatabánya Tatabánya

The model missed the final outcome (Gyori ETO II win 2–1).

The model had projected Tatabánya at 47.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Tatabánya Gyori ETO II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Tatabánya higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Tatabánya -11.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Gyori ETO II 24.8% 18.8% +6.0 pp Model Higher
Draw 27.2% 21.6% +5.7 pp Model Higher
Tatabánya 47.9% 59.6% -11.7 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Tatabánya's win probability at 59.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 47.9%, a difference of 11.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Gyori ETO II win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Tatabánya than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Tatabánya; match finished Gyori ETO II

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Tatabánya by 11.7 percentage points (59.6% vs model 47.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 26, 2026 · 19:20 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Gyori ETO II 24.8% · Draw 27.3% · Tatabánya 47.9%
    • xG · Gyori ETO II 1.14 — Tatabánya 1.46
  2. Jul 26, 2026 · 08:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Gyori ETO II 4.72 · Draw 4.12 · Tatabánya 1.49
    • Implied 1X2 · Gyori ETO II 18.8% · Draw 21.6% · Tatabánya 59.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 26, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Gyori ETO II 4.72 · Draw 4.12 · Tatabánya 1.49
    • Implied 1X2 · Gyori ETO II 18.8% · Draw 21.6% · Tatabánya 59.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 26, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Gyori ETO II win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 41/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1454088

Closing Odds 1.49
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Gyori ETO II win · Gyori ETO II 2–1 Tatabánya
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: NB III – Northwest
  • Fixture: Gyori ETO II vs Tatabánya
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-26 09:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 0.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 50.0%
  • xG (showing): Gyori ETO II 1.14 — Tatabánya 1.46 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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NB III - Northwest NB III - Northwest — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Haladás VSE 8 6 2 0 20
2 Tatabánya 9 6 2 1 20
3 Dorogi FC 8 6 1 1 19
4 Sárisápi Bányász 9 5 1 3 16
5 MTE 1904 8 4 3 1 15
6 Bicskei 9 5 0 4 15
7 Komárom 9 4 3 2 15
8 Gyori ETO II 9 4 2 3 14
9 SC Sopron 9 3 3 3 12
10 Zalaegerszegi TE II 9 3 1 5 10
11 Puskás II 8 3 0 5 9
12 Veszprém 9 2 3 4 9
13 Pápai Perutz 8 2 2 4 8
14 Király SZE 9 1 3 5 6
15 Szombathelyi Haladas 1 0 1 0 1
15 Balatonalmádi 8 1 0 7 3
16 1908 SZAC 9 0 2 7 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dorogi FC 8 26 6 +20 19
2 Haladás VSE 8 24 7 +17 20
3 Tatabánya 9 23 8 +15 20
4 Bicskei 9 23 20 +3 15
5 Komárom 9 16 13 +3 15
6 Sárisápi Bányász 9 15 15 0 16
7 Zalaegerszegi TE II 9 15 17 -2 10
8 MTE 1904 8 14 7 +7 15
9 Gyori ETO II 9 14 10 +4 14
10 Puskás II 8 14 17 -3 9
11 Veszprém 9 14 21 -7 9
12 SC Sopron 9 12 13 -1 12
13 Király SZE 9 9 17 -8 6
14 Pápai Perutz 8 7 14 -7 8
15 Balatonalmádi 8 7 26 -19 3
16 1908 SZAC 9 5 27 -22 2
17 Szombathelyi Haladas 1 1 1 0 1
NB III - Northwest Hungary. NB III - Northwest Predictions