The model missed the final outcome (Salgótarjáni BTC win 1–2).
The model had projected Tarpa at 41.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Tarpa Salgótarjáni BTC ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Tarpa; match finished Salgótarjáni BTC
Market lesson
The full-time result was Salgótarjáni BTC win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 14, 2026 · 02:11 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Tarpa 1.43 — Salgótarjáni BTC 1.17
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Salgótarjáni BTC win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Salgótarjáni BTC win · Tarpa 1–2 Salgótarjáni BTC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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NB III - Northeast — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ózd Sajóvölgye | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 |
| 2 | Cigand SE | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 3 | DEAC | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 4 | Diósgyőr II | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | Mátészalka | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Gödöllő | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 7 | Füzesabony | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 8 | Debrecen II | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | Kisvárda II | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | Eger | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 11 | Tiszaújváros | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 12 | Tiszafuredi VSE | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 13 | Hajdúnánás | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 14 | Salgótarjáni BTC | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 15 | Tarpa | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 16 | Nyiregyhaza II | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ózd Sajóvölgye | 9 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 21 |
| 2 | Debrecen II | 9 | 23 | 20 | +3 | 13 |
| 3 | DEAC | 9 | 22 | 13 | +9 | 17 |
| 4 | Cigand SE | 8 | 21 | 6 | +15 | 21 |
| 5 | Diósgyőr II | 9 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 16 |
| 6 | Mátészalka | 9 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 15 |
| 7 | Gödöllő | 9 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 | Kisvárda II | 8 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 9 | Hajdúnánás | 8 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 7 |
| 10 | Füzesabony | 9 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 15 |
| 11 | Tiszaújváros | 9 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 | Nyiregyhaza II | 9 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 3 |
| 13 | Eger | 8 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 13 |
| 14 | Tarpa | 9 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 6 |
| 15 | Tiszafuredi VSE | 9 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 9 |
| 16 | Salgótarjáni BTC | 9 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 6 |
