The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Kisvárda II at 45.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Kisvárda II Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kisvárda II | 45.3% | 64.2% | -18.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.9% | 20.5% | +8.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Diósgyőr II | 25.8% | 15.2% | +10.6 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Kisvárda II's win probability at 64.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 45.3%, a difference of 18.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Kisvárda II than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Kisvárda II; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Kisvárda II by 18.9 percentage points (64.2% vs model 45.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Kisvárda II 45.3% · Draw 28.9% · Diósgyőr II 25.8%
- xG · Kisvárda II 1.51 — Diósgyőr II 1.09
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 08:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Kisvárda II 1.38 · Draw 4.32 · Diósgyőr II 5.82
- Implied 1X2 · Kisvárda II 64.2% · Draw 20.5% · Diósgyőr II 15.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Kisvárda II 1.38 · Draw 4.32 · Diósgyőr II 5.82
- Implied 1X2 · Kisvárda II 64.2% · Draw 20.5% · Diósgyőr II 15.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (19 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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NB III - Northeast — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ózd Sajóvölgye | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 |
| 2 | Cigand SE | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 3 | DEAC | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 4 | Diósgyőr II | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | Mátészalka | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Gödöllő | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 7 | Füzesabony | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 8 | Debrecen II | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | Kisvárda II | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | Eger | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 11 | Tiszaújváros | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 12 | Tiszafuredi VSE | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 13 | Hajdúnánás | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 14 | Salgótarjáni BTC | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 15 | Tarpa | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 16 | Nyiregyhaza II | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ózd Sajóvölgye | 9 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 21 |
| 2 | Debrecen II | 9 | 23 | 20 | +3 | 13 |
| 3 | DEAC | 9 | 22 | 13 | +9 | 17 |
| 4 | Cigand SE | 8 | 21 | 6 | +15 | 21 |
| 5 | Diósgyőr II | 9 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 16 |
| 6 | Mátészalka | 9 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 15 |
| 7 | Gödöllő | 9 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 | Kisvárda II | 8 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 9 | Hajdúnánás | 8 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 7 |
| 10 | Füzesabony | 9 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 15 |
| 11 | Tiszaújváros | 9 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 | Nyiregyhaza II | 9 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 3 |
| 13 | Eger | 8 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 13 |
| 14 | Tarpa | 9 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 6 |
| 15 | Tiszafuredi VSE | 9 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 9 |
| 16 | Salgótarjáni BTC | 9 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 6 |
