AI correctly predicted the Plaza Colonia win.
The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Plaza Colonia Plaza Colonia ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plaza Colonia | 38.5% | 51.4% | -12.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.4% | +1.1 pp | Aligned |
| Miramar | 31.9% | 20.2% | +11.8 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Plaza Colonia's win probability at 51.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 12.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Plaza Colonia win 3–0).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Plaza Colonia than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Plaza Colonia higher (51.4% vs model 38.5%, 12.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Plaza Colonia win 3–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 01, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Plaza Colonia 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Miramar 31.9%
- xG · Plaza Colonia 1.37 — Miramar 1.23
-
Aug 01, 2026 · 23:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Plaza Colonia 1.78 · Draw 3.22 · Miramar 4.54
- Implied 1X2 · Plaza Colonia 51.4% · Draw 28.4% · Miramar 20.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 01, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Plaza Colonia 1.78 · Draw 3.22 · Miramar 4.54
- Implied 1X2 · Plaza Colonia 51.4% · Draw 28.4% · Miramar 20.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 01, 2026 · 23:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Plaza Colonia win · 3–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Segunda División — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oriental | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 2 | Plaza Colonia | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 3 | Fenix | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 4 | Sportivo Huracan | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | Colón | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Uruguay Montevideo | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Rentistas | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Cerrito | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | La Luz | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Miramar | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 11 | Paysandu | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 12 | Atenas | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 13 | CA River Plate | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 14 | Tacuarembo | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fenix | 6 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 11 |
| 2 | Plaza Colonia | 6 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 12 |
| 3 | Sportivo Huracan | 6 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 | Oriental | 6 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Colón | 6 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 9 |
| 6 | Cerrito | 6 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 | Uruguay Montevideo | 6 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 9 |
| 8 | Rentistas | 6 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 9 |
| 9 | CA River Plate | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
| 10 | La Luz | 6 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | Tacuarembo | 6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 3 |
| 12 | Atenas | 6 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 |
| 13 | Paysandu | 6 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Miramar | 6 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 5 |
