The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Al Ansar at 40.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Al Ansar Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Ansar | 40.0% | 41.5% | -1.6 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.7% | 28.2% | +1.5 pp | Aligned |
| Al Nejmeh | 30.3% | 30.2% | +0.1 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Al Ansar; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 20, 2026 · 19:20 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Al Ansar 40.0% · Draw 29.7% · Al Nejmeh 30.3%
- xG · Al Ansar 1.32 — Al Nejmeh 1.14
-
Jul 20, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Al Ansar 2.14 · Draw 3.15 · Al Nejmeh 2.94
- Implied 1X2 · Al Ansar 41.5% · Draw 28.2% · Al Nejmeh 30.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 20, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Al Ansar 2.14 · Draw 3.15 · Al Nejmeh 2.94
- Implied 1X2 · Al Ansar 41.5% · Draw 28.2% · Al Nejmeh 30.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 20, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ansar | 21 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 53 |
| 2 | Al Nejmeh | 21 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 46 |
| 3 | Al Ahed | 21 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 40 |
| 4 | Jwaaya FC | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 38 |
| 5 | Safa | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 36 |
| 6 | Al Hikma | 21 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 30 |
| 7 | Shabab Al Sahel | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 27 |
| 8 | Al Mabarrah | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 22 |
| 9 | Reyady Abaseya | 21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 20 |
| 10 | Tadamon Sour | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 17 |
| 11 | Bourj | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 12 | Racing | 21 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ansar | 21 | 53 | 9 | +44 | 53 |
| 2 | Al Nejmeh | 21 | 42 | 10 | +32 | 46 |
| 3 | Al Ahed | 21 | 34 | 22 | +12 | 40 |
| 4 | Jwaaya FC | 21 | 31 | 14 | +17 | 38 |
| 5 | Safa | 21 | 30 | 17 | +13 | 36 |
| 6 | Al Hikma | 21 | 29 | 27 | +2 | 30 |
| 7 | Shabab Al Sahel | 21 | 22 | 21 | +1 | 27 |
| 8 | Reyady Abaseya | 21 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 20 |
| 9 | Tadamon Sour | 21 | 12 | 26 | -14 | 17 |
| 10 | Al Mabarrah | 21 | 12 | 36 | -24 | 22 |
| 11 | Bourj | 11 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 10 |
| 12 | Racing | 21 | 4 | 61 | -57 | 1 |
