Predictions / Football / Scotland. Challenge Cup / Peterhead vs Elgin City

Prediction Audit: Peterhead vs Elgin City Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Peterhead Peterhead
Sep 26, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.30
1 1.30
xG Accuracy: 64%
Elgin City Elgin City

The model missed the final outcome (Elgin City win 0–1).

The model had projected Peterhead at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Peterhead Elgin City ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Peterhead higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Peterhead -8.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Peterhead 35.2% 44.0% -8.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 26.8% +2.9 pp Aligned
Elgin City 35.2% 29.2% +6.0 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Peterhead's win probability at 44.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 8.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Elgin City win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Peterhead. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Peterhead; match finished Elgin City

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Peterhead by 8.8 percentage points (44.0% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 14:10 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Peterhead 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Elgin City 35.2%
    • xG · Peterhead 1.30 — Elgin City 1.30
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 13:48 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Peterhead 2.06 · Draw 3.38 · Elgin City 3.10
    • Implied 1X2 · Peterhead 44.0% · Draw 26.8% · Elgin City 29.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 14:10 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Peterhead 2.06 · Draw 3.38 · Elgin City 3.10
    • Implied 1X2 · Peterhead 44.0% · Draw 26.8% · Elgin City 29.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Elgin City win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 55/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10101893

Closing Odds 2.06
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Elgin City win · Peterhead 0–1 Elgin City
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Challenge Cup
  • Fixture: Peterhead vs Elgin City
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Peterhead 1.3 — Elgin City 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 39.3% · Probability edge: +12.5 pts · Est. EV: +39.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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