Predictions / Football / Scotland. Challenge Cup / Cumbernauld Colts vs St. Mirren U21

Prediction Audit: Cumbernauld Colts vs St. Mirren U21 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Cumbernauld Colts Cumbernauld Colts
Sep 26, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.34
4 1.26
xG Accuracy: 39%
St. Mirren U21 St. Mirren U21

The model missed the final outcome (St. Mirren U21 win 2–4).

The model had projected Cumbernauld Colts at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Cumbernauld Colts St. Mirren U21 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices St. Mirren U21 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: St. Mirren U21 -20.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Cumbernauld Colts 37.1% 24.4% +12.6 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 21.8% +7.8 pp Model Higher
St. Mirren U21 33.3% 53.8% -20.5 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates St. Mirren U21's win probability at 53.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 20.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was St. Mirren U21 win 2–4.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Cumbernauld Colts by 20.5 percentage points (57.6% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 14:09 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Cumbernauld Colts 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · St. Mirren U21 33.4%
    • xG · Cumbernauld Colts 1.34 — St. Mirren U21 1.26
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 13:47 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Cumbernauld Colts 3.70 · Draw 4.15 · St. Mirren U21 1.68
    • Implied 1X2 · Cumbernauld Colts 24.4% · Draw 21.8% · St. Mirren U21 53.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 14:09 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Cumbernauld Colts 3.70 · Draw 4.15 · St. Mirren U21 1.68
    • Implied 1X2 · Cumbernauld Colts 24.4% · Draw 21.8% · St. Mirren U21 53.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result St. Mirren U21 win · 2–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (20 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 15/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10101521

Closing Odds 1.68
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result St. Mirren U21 win · Cumbernauld Colts 2–4 St. Mirren U21
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Challenge Cup
  • Fixture: Cumbernauld Colts vs St. Mirren U21
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Cumbernauld Colts 1.34 — St. Mirren U21 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 26.4% · Probability edge: +25.4 pts · Est. EV: +86.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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