Predictions / Football / Scotland. Challenge Cup / Cowdenbeath vs Clyde

Prediction Audit: Cowdenbeath vs Clyde Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Cowdenbeath Cowdenbeath
Sep 26, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.32
3 1.28
xG Accuracy: 57%
Clyde Clyde

The model missed the final outcome (Clyde win 1–3).

The model had projected Cowdenbeath at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Cowdenbeath Clyde ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Clyde higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Clyde -17.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Cowdenbeath 36.1% 28.2% +7.9 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 20.4% +9.2 pp Model Higher
Clyde 34.2% 51.3% -17.1 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Clyde's win probability at 51.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 17.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Clyde win 1–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Clyde than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Cowdenbeath by 17.1 percentage points (53.2% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 14:09 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Cowdenbeath 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Clyde 34.2%
    • xG · Cowdenbeath 1.32 — Clyde 1.28
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 13:47 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Cowdenbeath 3.20 · Draw 4.42 · Clyde 1.76
    • Implied 1X2 · Cowdenbeath 28.2% · Draw 20.4% · Clyde 51.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 14:09 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Cowdenbeath 3.20 · Draw 4.42 · Clyde 1.76
    • Implied 1X2 · Cowdenbeath 28.2% · Draw 20.4% · Clyde 51.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Clyde win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (17 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 4/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10101439

Closing Odds 1.76
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Clyde win · Cowdenbeath 1–3 Clyde
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Challenge Cup
  • Fixture: Cowdenbeath vs Clyde
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Cowdenbeath 1.32 — Clyde 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 33.6% · Probability edge: +18.2 pts · Est. EV: +49.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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