AI correctly predicted the Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic win.
The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic | 40.9% | 64.5% | -23.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 14.9% | +14.4 pp | Model Edge |
| Motherwell U21 | 29.7% | 20.5% | +9.2 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic's win probability at 64.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 23.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic win 3–0).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic higher (64.5% vs model 40.9%, 23.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic win 3–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:08 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Motherwell U21 29.6%
- xG · Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 1.42 — Motherwell U21 1.18
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:47 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 1.40 · Draw 6.04 · Motherwell U21 4.40
- Implied 1X2 · Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 64.5% · Draw 14.9% · Motherwell U21 20.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:08 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 1.40 · Draw 6.04 · Motherwell U21 4.40
- Implied 1X2 · Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 64.5% · Draw 14.9% · Motherwell U21 20.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic win · 3–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (24 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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