Predictions / Football / Scotland. Challenge Cup / Kelty Hearts vs Hearts U21

Prediction Audit: Kelty Hearts vs Hearts U21 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kelty Hearts Kelty Hearts
Sep 22, 2026 - 18:45
3 1.39
5 1.21
xG Accuracy: 23%
Hearts U21 Hearts U21

The model missed the final outcome (Hearts U21 win 3–5).

The model had projected Kelty Hearts at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Kelty Hearts Hearts U21 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-5 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Kelty Hearts higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Kelty Hearts -28.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Kelty Hearts 39.5% 68.1% -28.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 16.4% +13.1 pp Model Edge
Hearts U21 31.0% 15.5% +15.5 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Kelty Hearts's win probability at 68.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.5%, a difference of 28.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.

After full time, the result was Hearts U21 win 3–5.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (8 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Kelty Hearts by 28.6 percentage points (68.1% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 22, 2026 · 18:37 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Kelty Hearts 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Hearts U21 31.0%
    • xG · Kelty Hearts 1.39 — Hearts U21 1.21
  2. Sep 22, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Kelty Hearts 1.33 · Draw 5.53 · Hearts U21 5.83
    • Implied 1X2 · Kelty Hearts 68.1% · Draw 16.4% · Hearts U21 15.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 22, 2026 · 18:37 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Kelty Hearts 1.33 · Draw 5.53 · Hearts U21 5.83
    • Implied 1X2 · Kelty Hearts 68.1% · Draw 16.4% · Hearts U21 15.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 22, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Hearts U21 win · 3–5
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (29 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 16, 2026 · 02:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8992530

Closing Odds 1.33
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Hearts U21 win · Kelty Hearts 3–5 Hearts U21
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Challenge Cup
  • Fixture: Kelty Hearts vs Hearts U21
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-22 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): Kelty Hearts 1.39 — Hearts U21 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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