Predictions / Football / Scotland. Challenge Cup / Forfar Athletic vs Peterhead

Prediction Audit: Forfar Athletic vs Peterhead Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Forfar Athletic Forfar Athletic
Sep 22, 2026 - 18:45
0 1.34
2 1.26
xG Accuracy: 56%
Peterhead Peterhead

The model missed the final outcome (Peterhead win 0–2).

The model had projected Forfar Athletic at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Forfar Athletic Peterhead ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Peterhead higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Peterhead -13.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Forfar Athletic 37.1% 29.0% +8.1 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 24.7% +4.9 pp Aligned
Peterhead 33.3% 46.3% -13.0 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Peterhead's win probability at 46.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 13.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Peterhead win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Peterhead than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Forfar Athletic; match finished Peterhead
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Forfar Athletic by 13.0 percentage points (50.1% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 22, 2026 · 18:42 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Forfar Athletic 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Peterhead 33.4%
    • xG · Forfar Athletic 1.34 — Peterhead 1.26
  2. Sep 22, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Forfar Athletic 3.12 · Draw 3.66 · Peterhead 1.95
    • Implied 1X2 · Forfar Athletic 29.0% · Draw 24.7% · Peterhead 46.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 22, 2026 · 18:42 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Forfar Athletic 3.12 · Draw 3.66 · Peterhead 1.95
    • Implied 1X2 · Forfar Athletic 29.0% · Draw 24.7% · Peterhead 46.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 22, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Peterhead win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 11/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 16, 2026 · 02:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8992421

Closing Odds 1.95
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Peterhead win · Forfar Athletic 0–2 Peterhead
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Challenge Cup
  • Fixture: Forfar Athletic vs Peterhead
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-22 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Forfar Athletic 1.34 — Peterhead 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 41.7% · Probability edge: +10.1 pts · Est. EV: +16.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 26, 2026 (UTC)

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