Predictions / Football / World. UEFA Europa League / Twente vs Ferencvarosi TC

Prediction Audit: Twente vs Ferencvarosi TC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Twente Twente
Jul 23, 2026 - 18:00
1 2.22
2 1.18
xG Accuracy: 57%
Ferencvarosi TC Ferencvarosi TC

The model missed the final outcome (Ferencvarosi TC win 1–2).

The model had projected Twente at 59.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 FC Twente Ferencvarosi TC ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 3-1 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Twente -1.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Twente 59.9% 61.5% -1.6 pp Aligned
Draw 22.2% 21.6% +0.6 pp Aligned
Ferencvarosi TC 17.9% 16.9% +1.1 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Ferencvarosi TC win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.40) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned FC Twente; match finished Ferencvarosi TC
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was Ferencvarosi TC win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 23, 2026 · 19:45 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Twente 59.9% · Draw 22.2% · Ferencvarosi TC 17.9%
    • xG · Twente 2.22 — Ferencvarosi TC 1.18
  2. Jul 23, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Twente 1.53 · Draw 4.36 · Ferencvarosi TC 5.58
    • Implied 1X2 · Twente 61.5% · Draw 21.6% · Ferencvarosi TC 16.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 23, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Twente 1.53 · Draw 4.36 · Ferencvarosi TC 5.58
    • Implied 1X2 · Twente 61.5% · Draw 21.6% · Ferencvarosi TC 16.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 23, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Ferencvarosi TC win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 72/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (64%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 91/100
Betting Confidence 75/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1449867

Closing Odds 1.53
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ferencvarosi TC win · Twente 1–2 Ferencvarosi TC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: UEFA Europa League
  • Fixture: FC Twente vs Ferencvárosi TC
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-23 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 59.9% · Draw 22.2% · Away 17.9%
  • xG (showing): FC Twente 2.22 — Ferencvárosi TC 1.18 (total xG ≈ 3.4)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 34.0% · Over 2.5 66.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 62.9% · No 37.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 62.9% · No 37.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (9.7%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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UEFA Europa League UEFA Europa League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Juventus 1 1 0 0 3
2 Crystal Palace 1 1 0 0 3
3 Sparta Praha 1 1 0 0 3
4 Besiktas 1 1 0 0 3
5 Union St. Gilloise 1 1 0 0 3
6 Ferencvarosi TC 1 1 0 0 3
7 Benfica 1 1 0 0 3
8 Bayer Leverkusen 1 1 0 0 3
9 OFI 1 1 0 0 3
10 Bournemouth 1 1 0 0 3
11 Lyon 1 1 0 0 3
12 Torreense 1 1 0 0 3
13 Olympiakos Piraeus 1 1 0 0 3
14 Red Bull Salzburg 1 1 0 0 3
15 Sunderland 1 1 0 0 3
16 Omonia Nicosia 1 1 0 0 3
17 Sturm Graz 1 0 1 0 1
18 Rennes 1 0 1 0 1
19 Dinamo Zagreb 1 0 1 0 1
20 Hapoel Beer Sheva 1 0 1 0 1
21 Jagiellonia 1 0 0 1 0
22 Real Sociedad 1 0 0 1 0
23 Anderlecht 1 0 0 1 0
24 Lillestrom 1 0 0 1 0
25 Celta Vigo 1 0 0 1 0
26 AZ Alkmaar 1 0 0 1 0
27 Levski Sofia 1 0 0 1 0
28 Celtic 1 0 0 1 0
29 1899 Hoffenheim 1 0 0 1 0
30 AC Milan 1 0 0 1 0
31 Celje 1 0 0 1 0
32 Marseille 1 0 0 1 0
33 Ararat-Armenia 1 0 0 1 0
34 Plzen 1 0 0 1 0
35 Lech Poznan 1 0 0 1 0
36 NEC Nijmegen 1 0 0 1 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Juventus 1 5 0 +5 3
2 Crystal Palace 1 4 0 +4 3
3 Sparta Praha 1 4 1 +3 3
4 Besiktas 1 4 1 +3 3
5 Union St. Gilloise 1 3 0 +3 3
6 Ferencvarosi TC 1 3 1 +2 3
7 Benfica 1 2 0 +2 3
8 Bayer Leverkusen 1 2 0 +2 3
9 OFI 1 2 0 +2 3
10 Bournemouth 1 2 1 +1 3
11 Lyon 1 2 1 +1 3
12 Torreense 1 2 1 +1 3
13 Olympiakos Piraeus 1 2 1 +1 3
14 Red Bull Salzburg 1 1 0 +1 3
15 Sunderland 1 1 0 +1 3
16 Omonia Nicosia 1 1 0 +1 3
17 Jagiellonia 1 1 2 -1 0
18 Real Sociedad 1 1 2 -1 0
19 Anderlecht 1 1 2 -1 0
20 Lillestrom 1 1 2 -1 0
21 Celtic 1 1 3 -2 0
22 Marseille 1 1 4 -3 0
23 Ararat-Armenia 1 1 4 -3 0
24 Sturm Graz 1 0 0 0 1
25 Rennes 1 0 0 0 1
26 Dinamo Zagreb 1 0 0 0 1
27 Hapoel Beer Sheva 1 0 0 0 1
28 Celta Vigo 1 0 1 -1 0
29 AZ Alkmaar 1 0 1 -1 0
30 Levski Sofia 1 0 1 -1 0
31 1899 Hoffenheim 1 0 2 -2 0
32 AC Milan 1 0 2 -2 0
33 Celje 1 0 2 -2 0
34 Plzen 1 0 3 -3 0
35 Lech Poznan 1 0 4 -4 0
36 NEC Nijmegen 1 0 5 -5 0
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Olympiakos Piraeus 1 2.5 0.5 +2.0 3
2 Sunderland 1 2.9 1.5 +1.4 3
3 Bayer Leverkusen 1 1.9 0.9 +1.0 3
4 Rennes 1 1.8 0.8 +1.0 1
5 Celta Vigo 1 1.2 0.3 +0.9 0
6 Sparta Praha 1 2.5 1.9 +0.6 3
7 Hapoel Beer Sheva 1 0.8 0.3 +0.5 1
8 AC Milan 1 1.0 0.6 +0.4 0
9 Anderlecht 1 1.4 1.3 +0.1 0
10 Lyon 1 1.3 1.4 -0.1 3
11 Benfica 1 0.6 1.0 -0.4 3
12 Dinamo Zagreb 1 0.3 0.8 -0.5 1
13 Ararat-Armenia 1 1.9 2.5 -0.6 0
14 Omonia Nicosia 1 0.3 1.2 -0.9 3
15 Celje 1 0.9 1.9 -1.0 0
16 Sturm Graz 1 0.8 1.8 -1.0 1
17 AZ Alkmaar 1 1.5 2.9 -1.4 0
18 Jagiellonia 1 0.5 2.5 -2.0 0
19 Juventus 1 — — — 3
20 Crystal Palace 1 — — — 3
21 Besiktas 1 — — — 3
22 Union St. Gilloise 1 — — — 3
23 Ferencvarosi TC 1 — — — 3
24 OFI 1 — — — 3
25 Bournemouth 1 — — — 3
26 Torreense 1 — — — 3
27 Red Bull Salzburg 1 — — — 3
28 Real Sociedad 1 — — — 0
29 Lillestrom 1 — — — 0
30 Levski Sofia 1 — — — 0
31 Celtic 1 — — — 0
32 1899 Hoffenheim 1 — — — 0
33 Marseille 1 — — — 0
34 Plzen 1 — — — 0
35 Lech Poznan 1 — — — 0
36 NEC Nijmegen 1 — — — 0