Prediction Audit: Sheriff Tiraspol vs Maccabi Tel Aviv Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sheriff Tiraspol

Jul 23, 2026 - 17:00

0 1.38

5 1.22

xG Accuracy: 24%

Maccabi Tel Aviv

AI correctly predicted the Maccabi Tel Aviv win.

The match finished 0–5, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Maccabi Tel Aviv Maccabi Tel Aviv ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-5 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Sheriff Tiraspol	35.2%	30.9%	+4.3 pp	Aligned
Draw	29.4%	28.2%	+1.2 pp	Aligned
Maccabi Tel Aviv	35.5%	40.9%	-5.5 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Maccabi Tel Aviv's win probability at 40.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.5%, a difference of 5.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Maccabi Tel Aviv win 0–5).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Maccabi Tel Aviv. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Maccabi Tel Aviv higher (41.0% vs model 35.5%, 5.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Maccabi Tel Aviv win 0–5).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Jul 23, 2026 · 19:39 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sheriff Tiraspol 35.2% · Draw 29.3% · Maccabi Tel Aviv 35.5%
- xG · Sheriff Tiraspol 1.38 — Maccabi Tel Aviv 1.22
Jul 23, 2026 · 16:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sheriff Tiraspol 2.93 · Draw 3.21 · Maccabi Tel Aviv 2.21
- Implied 1X2 · Sheriff Tiraspol 30.9% · Draw 28.2% · Maccabi Tel Aviv 40.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 23, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sheriff Tiraspol 2.93 · Draw 3.21 · Maccabi Tel Aviv 2.21
- Implied 1X2 · Sheriff Tiraspol 30.9% · Draw 28.2% · Maccabi Tel Aviv 40.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 23, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Maccabi Tel Aviv win · 0–5
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Market Compatibility 72/100

Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1452116

Closing Odds 2.21

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Maccabi Tel Aviv win · Sheriff Tiraspol 0–5 Maccabi Tel Aviv

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: UEFA Europa League
Fixture: Sheriff Tiraspol vs Maccabi Tel Aviv
Kickoff: 2026-07-23 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.0% · Draw 33.0% · Away 33.0%
xG (showing): Sheriff Tiraspol 1.38 — Maccabi Tel Aviv 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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UEFA Europa League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Juventus	1	1	0	0	3
2	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	3
3	Sparta Praha	1	1	0	0	3
4	Besiktas	1	1	0	0	3
5	Union St. Gilloise	1	1	0	0	3
6	Ferencvarosi TC	1	1	0	0	3
7	Benfica	1	1	0	0	3
8	Bayer Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	3
9	OFI	1	1	0	0	3
10	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	3
11	Lyon	1	1	0	0	3
12	Torreense	1	1	0	0	3
13	Olympiakos Piraeus	1	1	0	0	3
14	Red Bull Salzburg	1	1	0	0	3
15	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	3
16	Omonia Nicosia	1	1	0	0	3
17	Sturm Graz	1	0	1	0	1
18	Rennes	1	0	1	0	1
19	Dinamo Zagreb	1	0	1	0	1
20	Hapoel Beer Sheva	1	0	1	0	1
21	Jagiellonia	1	0	0	1	0
22	Real Sociedad	1	0	0	1	0
23	Anderlecht	1	0	0	1	0
24	Lillestrom	1	0	0	1	0
25	Celta Vigo	1	0	0	1	0
26	AZ Alkmaar	1	0	0	1	0
27	Levski Sofia	1	0	0	1	0
28	Celtic	1	0	0	1	0
29	1899 Hoffenheim	1	0	0	1	0
30	AC Milan	1	0	0	1	0
31	Celje	1	0	0	1	0
32	Marseille	1	0	0	1	0
33	Ararat-Armenia	1	0	0	1	0
34	Plzen	1	0	0	1	0
35	Lech Poznan	1	0	0	1	0
36	NEC Nijmegen	1	0	0	1	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Juventus	1	5	0	+5	3
2	Crystal Palace	1	4	0	+4	3
3	Sparta Praha	1	4	1	+3	3
4	Besiktas	1	4	1	+3	3
5	Union St. Gilloise	1	3	0	+3	3
6	Ferencvarosi TC	1	3	1	+2	3
7	Benfica	1	2	0	+2	3
8	Bayer Leverkusen	1	2	0	+2	3
9	OFI	1	2	0	+2	3
10	Bournemouth	1	2	1	+1	3
11	Lyon	1	2	1	+1	3
12	Torreense	1	2	1	+1	3
13	Olympiakos Piraeus	1	2	1	+1	3
14	Red Bull Salzburg	1	1	0	+1	3
15	Sunderland	1	1	0	+1	3
16	Omonia Nicosia	1	1	0	+1	3
17	Jagiellonia	1	1	2	-1	0
18	Real Sociedad	1	1	2	-1	0
19	Anderlecht	1	1	2	-1	0
20	Lillestrom	1	1	2	-1	0
21	Celtic	1	1	3	-2	0
22	Marseille	1	1	4	-3	0
23	Ararat-Armenia	1	1	4	-3	0
24	Sturm Graz	1	0	0	0	1
25	Rennes	1	0	0	0	1
26	Dinamo Zagreb	1	0	0	0	1
27	Hapoel Beer Sheva	1	0	0	0	1
28	Celta Vigo	1	0	1	-1	0
29	AZ Alkmaar	1	0	1	-1	0
30	Levski Sofia	1	0	1	-1	0
31	1899 Hoffenheim	1	0	2	-2	0
32	AC Milan	1	0	2	-2	0
33	Celje	1	0	2	-2	0
34	Plzen	1	0	3	-3	0
35	Lech Poznan	1	0	4	-4	0
36	NEC Nijmegen	1	0	5	-5	0

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Olympiakos Piraeus	1	2.5	0.5	+2.0	3
2	Sunderland	1	2.9	1.5	+1.4	3
3	Bayer Leverkusen	1	1.9	0.9	+1.0	3
4	Rennes	1	1.8	0.8	+1.0	1
5	Celta Vigo	1	1.2	0.3	+0.9	0
6	Sparta Praha	1	2.5	1.9	+0.6	3
7	Hapoel Beer Sheva	1	0.8	0.3	+0.5	1
8	AC Milan	1	1.0	0.6	+0.4	0
9	Anderlecht	1	1.4	1.3	+0.1	0
10	Lyon	1	1.3	1.4	-0.1	3
11	Benfica	1	0.6	1.0	-0.4	3
12	Dinamo Zagreb	1	0.3	0.8	-0.5	1
13	Ararat-Armenia	1	1.9	2.5	-0.6	0
14	Omonia Nicosia	1	0.3	1.2	-0.9	3
15	Celje	1	0.9	1.9	-1.0	0
16	Sturm Graz	1	0.8	1.8	-1.0	1
17	AZ Alkmaar	1	1.5	2.9	-1.4	0
18	Jagiellonia	1	0.5	2.5	-2.0	0
19	Juventus	1	—	—	—	3
20	Crystal Palace	1	—	—	—	3
21	Besiktas	1	—	—	—	3
22	Union St. Gilloise	1	—	—	—	3
23	Ferencvarosi TC	1	—	—	—	3
24	OFI	1	—	—	—	3
25	Bournemouth	1	—	—	—	3
26	Torreense	1	—	—	—	3
27	Red Bull Salzburg	1	—	—	—	3
28	Real Sociedad	1	—	—	—	0
29	Lillestrom	1	—	—	—	0
30	Levski Sofia	1	—	—	—	0
31	Celtic	1	—	—	—	0
32	1899 Hoffenheim	1	—	—	—	0
33	Marseille	1	—	—	—	0
34	Plzen	1	—	—	—	0
35	Lech Poznan	1	—	—	—	0
36	NEC Nijmegen	1	—	—	—	0