Predictions / Football / World. UEFA Europa Conference League / Koper vs NSI Runavik

Prediction Audit: Koper vs NSI Runavik Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Koper Koper
Jul 30, 2026 - 18:45
0(3) 1.32
2(4) 1.28
xG Accuracy: 57%
NSI Runavik NSI Runavik

The model missed the final outcome (NSI Runavik win 0–2).

The model had projected Koper at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Koper NSI Runavik ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Koper higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Koper -28.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Koper 36.1% 65.0% -28.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 19.8% +9.8 pp Model Higher
NSI Runavik 34.2% 15.2% +19.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Koper's win probability at 65.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 28.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was NSI Runavik win 0–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Koper; match finished NSI Runavik

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Koper by 28.9 percentage points (65.0% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 30, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Koper 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · NSI Runavik 34.2%
    • xG · Koper 1.32 — NSI Runavik 1.28
  2. Jul 30, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Koper 1.41 · Draw 4.62 · NSI Runavik 6.03
    • Implied 1X2 · Koper 65.0% · Draw 19.8% · NSI Runavik 15.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 30, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Koper 1.41 · Draw 4.62 · NSI Runavik 6.03
    • Implied 1X2 · Koper 65.0% · Draw 19.8% · NSI Runavik 15.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 30, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result NSI Runavik win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (29 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 01:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1527388

Closing Odds 1.41
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result NSI Runavik win · Koper 0–2 NSI Runavik
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: UEFA Europa Conference League
  • Fixture: Koper vs NSI Runavik
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-30 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Koper 1.32 — NSI Runavik 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming UEFA Europa Conference League Matches Track Koper Next Match Prediction Track NSI Runavik Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Koper & NSI Runavik!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
UEFA Europa Conference League UEFA Europa Conference League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Aarhus 0 0 0 0 0
2 Ajax 0 0 0 0 0
3 Atalanta 0 0 0 0 0
4 Borac Banja Luka 0 0 0 0 0
5 SC Braga 0 0 0 0 0
6 Brann 0 0 0 0 0
7 Brighton 0 0 0 0 0
8 FC Copenhagen 0 0 0 0 0
9 FK Crvena Zvezda 0 0 0 0 0
10 CSKA Sofia 0 0 0 0 0
11 Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0 0 0 0 0
12 SC Freiburg 0 0 0 0 0
13 Gent 0 0 0 0 0
14 Getafe 0 0 0 0 0
15 HNK Hajduk Split 0 0 0 0 0
16 Heart Of Midlothian 0 0 0 0 0
17 Saburtalo 0 0 0 0 0
18 Inter Club d'Escaldes 0 0 0 0 0
19 FK Jablonec 0 0 0 0 0
20 Kairat Almaty 0 0 0 0 0
21 Kauno Žalgiris 0 0 0 0 0
22 KuPS 0 0 0 0 0
23 Lincoln Red Imps FC 0 0 0 0 0
24 FC Lugano 0 0 0 0 0
25 FC Midtjylland 0 0 0 0 0
26 Mjallby AIF 0 0 0 0 0
27 Monaco 0 0 0 0 0
28 FC Nordsjaelland 0 0 0 0 0
29 Pafos 0 0 0 0 0
30 Panathinaikos 0 0 0 0 0
31 Riga 0 0 0 0 0
32 St. Truiden 0 0 0 0 0
33 FC Thun 0 0 0 0 0
34 Trabzonspor 0 0 0 0 0
35 Twente 0 0 0 0 0
36 Universitatea Craiova 0 0 0 0 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Aarhus 0 0 0 0 0
2 Ajax 0 0 0 0 0
3 Atalanta 0 0 0 0 0
4 Borac Banja Luka 0 0 0 0 0
5 SC Braga 0 0 0 0 0
6 Brann 0 0 0 0 0
7 Brighton 0 0 0 0 0
8 FC Copenhagen 0 0 0 0 0
9 FK Crvena Zvezda 0 0 0 0 0
10 CSKA Sofia 0 0 0 0 0
11 Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0 0 0 0 0
12 SC Freiburg 0 0 0 0 0
13 Gent 0 0 0 0 0
14 Getafe 0 0 0 0 0
15 HNK Hajduk Split 0 0 0 0 0
16 Heart Of Midlothian 0 0 0 0 0
17 Saburtalo 0 0 0 0 0
18 Inter Club d'Escaldes 0 0 0 0 0
19 FK Jablonec 0 0 0 0 0
20 Kairat Almaty 0 0 0 0 0
21 Kauno Žalgiris 0 0 0 0 0
22 KuPS 0 0 0 0 0
23 Lincoln Red Imps FC 0 0 0 0 0
24 FC Lugano 0 0 0 0 0
25 FC Midtjylland 0 0 0 0 0
26 Mjallby AIF 0 0 0 0 0
27 Monaco 0 0 0 0 0
28 FC Nordsjaelland 0 0 0 0 0
29 Pafos 0 0 0 0 0
30 Panathinaikos 0 0 0 0 0
31 Riga 0 0 0 0 0
32 St. Truiden 0 0 0 0 0
33 FC Thun 0 0 0 0 0
34 Trabzonspor 0 0 0 0 0
35 Twente 0 0 0 0 0
36 Universitatea Craiova 0 0 0 0 0