Predictions / Football / Greece. Super League 1 / Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus

Prediction Audit: Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Levadiakos Levadiakos
Sep 20, 2026 - 14:00
0 0.77
1 2.07
xG Accuracy: 60%
Olympiakos Piraeus Olympiakos Piraeus

AI correctly predicted the Olympiakos Piraeus win.

The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Olympiakos Piraeus Olympiakos Piraeus ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-2, 0-1, 1-2, 1-1, 0-3 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Olympiakos Piraeus higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Olympiakos Piraeus -5.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Levadiakos 11.1% 8.6% +2.5 pp Aligned
Draw 21.0% 17.7% +3.3 pp Aligned
Olympiakos Piraeus 67.9% 73.7% -5.8 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Olympiakos Piraeus's win probability at 73.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 67.9%, a difference of 5.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Olympiakos Piraeus win 0–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Olympiakos Piraeus. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Olympiakos Piraeus attacking xG significantly stronger (2.07 vs 0.77)
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Olympiakos Piraeus higher (73.7% vs model 67.9%, 5.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Olympiakos Piraeus win 0–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 20, 2026 · 19:25 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Levadiakos 11.0% · Draw 21.0% · Olympiakos Piraeus 68.0%
    • xG · Levadiakos 0.77 — Olympiakos Piraeus 2.07
  2. Sep 20, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Levadiakos 11.22 · Draw 5.45 · Olympiakos Piraeus 1.30
    • Implied 1X2 · Levadiakos 8.6% · Draw 17.6% · Olympiakos Piraeus 73.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 20, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Levadiakos 11.17 · Draw 5.42 · Olympiakos Piraeus 1.30
    • Implied 1X2 · Levadiakos 8.6% · Draw 17.7% · Olympiakos Piraeus 73.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 20, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Olympiakos Piraeus win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 70/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (53%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 71/100
Betting Confidence 73/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8698597

Closing Odds 1.3
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Olympiakos Piraeus win · Levadiakos 0–1 Olympiakos Piraeus
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Super League 1
  • Fixture: Levadiakos vs Olympiakos Piraeus
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 0.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 50.0%
  • xG (showing): Levadiakos 0.77 — Olympiakos Piraeus 2.07 (total xG ≈ 2.84)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League 1 Super League 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Panathinaikos 5 5 0 0 15
2 PAOK 5 4 0 1 12
3 AEK Athens FC 5 3 2 0 11
4 OFI 5 3 1 1 10
5 Olympiakos Piraeus 5 3 1 1 10
6 Panetolikos 5 3 0 2 9
7 Aris Thessalonikis 5 2 1 2 7
8 Iraklis 1908 5 1 3 1 6
9 Kifisia 5 1 2 2 5
10 Kalamata 5 1 1 3 4
11 Atromitos 5 0 2 3 2
12 Asteras Tripolis 5 0 2 3 2
13 Volos NFC 5 0 2 3 2
14 Levadiakos 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 AEK Athens FC 5 13 3 +10 11
2 Panathinaikos 5 12 2 +10 15
3 PAOK 5 12 5 +7 12
4 OFI 5 8 4 +4 10
5 Panetolikos 5 8 7 +1 9
6 Kalamata 5 6 8 -2 4
7 Aris Thessalonikis 5 5 10 -5 7
8 Olympiakos Piraeus 5 4 2 +2 10
9 Iraklis 1908 5 4 6 -2 6
10 Kifisia 5 4 7 -3 5
11 Atromitos 5 4 7 -3 2
12 Asteras Tripolis 5 4 9 -5 2
13 Volos NFC 5 4 9 -5 2
14 Levadiakos 5 0 9 -9 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Olympiakos Piraeus 5 4.9 1.1 +3.8 10
2 Aris Thessalonikis 5 4.5 2.8 +1.7 7
3 Panathinaikos 5 3.9 2.2 +1.7 15
4 Kifisia 5 2.2 1.1 +1.1 5
5 AEK Athens FC 5 2.5 1.5 +1.0 11
6 Panetolikos 5 3.0 2.2 +0.8 9
7 PAOK 5 4.7 4.3 +0.4 12
8 Asteras Tripolis 5 3.0 3.1 -0.1 2
9 OFI 5 3.4 3.7 -0.3 10
10 Volos NFC 5 0.8 1.4 -0.6 2
11 Iraklis 1908 5 1.3 3.0 -1.7 6
12 Levadiakos 5 1.6 3.4 -1.8 1
13 Kalamata 5 2.9 5.4 -2.5 4
14 Atromitos 5 1.7 5.1 -3.4 2