AI correctly predicted the Panathinaikos win.
The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 3-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos | 61.0% | 76.4% | -15.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 23.9% | 15.6% | +8.3 pp | Model Higher |
| Panetolikos | 15.1% | 8.0% | +7.1 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Panathinaikos's win probability at 76.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 61.0%, a difference of 15.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Panathinaikos win 3–0).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Panathinaikos than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.55) — 3 goals materialised
- Panathinaikos attacking xG significantly stronger (1.65 vs 0.90)
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Panathinaikos higher (76.5% vs model 61.0%, 15.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Panathinaikos win 3–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 19:39 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Panathinaikos 61.0% · Draw 23.9% · Panetolikos 15.1%
- xG · Panathinaikos 1.65 — Panetolikos 0.90
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 18:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Panathinaikos 1.25 · Draw 6.12 · Panetolikos 11.99
- Implied 1X2 · Panathinaikos 76.4% · Draw 15.6% · Panetolikos 8.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Panathinaikos 1.25 · Draw 6.12 · Panetolikos 11.99
- Implied 1X2 · Panathinaikos 76.4% · Draw 15.6% · Panetolikos 8.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Panathinaikos win · 3–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
- Moderate model lean
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Super League 1 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | PAOK | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | AEK Athens FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 4 | OFI | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Panetolikos | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Aris Thessalonikis | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Iraklis 1908 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Kifisia | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 10 | Kalamata | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Atromitos | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 12 | Asteras Tripolis | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 13 | Volos NFC | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 14 | Levadiakos | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Athens FC | 5 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 11 |
| 2 | Panathinaikos | 5 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 15 |
| 3 | PAOK | 5 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 12 |
| 4 | OFI | 5 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 10 |
| 5 | Panetolikos | 5 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 | Kalamata | 5 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 4 |
| 7 | Aris Thessalonikis | 5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 7 |
| 8 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 5 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 9 | Iraklis 1908 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 10 | Kifisia | 5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 5 |
| 11 | Atromitos | 5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 |
| 12 | Asteras Tripolis | 5 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2 |
| 13 | Volos NFC | 5 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2 |
| 14 | Levadiakos | 5 | 0 | 9 | -9 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 5 | 4.9 | 1.1 | +3.8 | 10 |
| 2 | Aris Thessalonikis | 5 | 4.5 | 2.8 | +1.7 | 7 |
| 3 | Panathinaikos | 5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | +1.7 | 15 |
| 4 | Kifisia | 5 | 2.2 | 1.1 | +1.1 | 5 |
| 5 | AEK Athens FC | 5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | +1.0 | 11 |
| 6 | Panetolikos | 5 | 3.0 | 2.2 | +0.8 | 9 |
| 7 | PAOK | 5 | 4.7 | 4.3 | +0.4 | 12 |
| 8 | Asteras Tripolis | 5 | 3.0 | 3.1 | -0.1 | 2 |
| 9 | OFI | 5 | 3.4 | 3.7 | -0.3 | 10 |
| 10 | Volos NFC | 5 | 0.8 | 1.4 | -0.6 | 2 |
| 11 | Iraklis 1908 | 5 | 1.3 | 3.0 | -1.7 | 6 |
| 12 | Levadiakos | 5 | 1.6 | 3.4 | -1.8 | 1 |
| 13 | Kalamata | 5 | 2.9 | 5.4 | -2.5 | 4 |
| 14 | Atromitos | 5 | 1.7 | 5.1 | -3.4 | 2 |
