Predictions / Football / Greece. Super League 1 / Kifisia vs Levadiakos

Prediction Audit: Kifisia vs Levadiakos Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kifisia Kifisia
Sep 13, 2026 - 18:00
0 1.55
0 0.76
xG Accuracy: 53%
Levadiakos Levadiakos

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Kifisia at 50.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Kifisia Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 2-0, 1-1, 0-0, 2-1 0-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Kifisia considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Kifisia +10.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Kifisia 50.3% 40.2% +10.1 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 31.5% -1.9 pp Aligned
Levadiakos 20.1% 28.4% -8.2 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Kifisia's win probability at 50.3%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 40.2%, a difference of 10.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Kifisia.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Kifisia; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Kifisia by 10.1 percentage points (40.2% vs model 50.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 13, 2026 · 19:38 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Kifisia 50.2% · Draw 29.7% · Levadiakos 20.1%
    • xG · Kifisia 1.55 — Levadiakos 0.76
  2. Sep 13, 2026 · 17:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Kifisia 2.40 · Draw 3.06 · Levadiakos 3.40
    • Implied 1X2 · Kifisia 40.2% · Draw 31.5% · Levadiakos 28.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 13, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Kifisia 2.40 · Draw 3.06 · Levadiakos 3.40
    • Implied 1X2 · Kifisia 40.2% · Draw 31.5% · Levadiakos 28.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 13, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 49/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7456885

Closing Odds 2.4
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Kifisia 0–0 Levadiakos
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Super League 1
  • Fixture: Kifisia vs Levadiakos
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 50.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 20.1%
  • xG (showing): Kifisia 1.55 — Levadiakos 0.76 (total xG ≈ 2.31)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
  • Model: 56.5% · Implied: 49.0% · Probability edge: +7.5 pts · Est. EV: +10.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 43.5% · No 56.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (15.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League 1 Super League 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Panathinaikos 5 5 0 0 15
2 PAOK 5 4 0 1 12
3 AEK Athens FC 5 3 2 0 11
4 OFI 5 3 1 1 10
5 Olympiakos Piraeus 5 3 1 1 10
6 Panetolikos 5 3 0 2 9
7 Aris Thessalonikis 5 2 1 2 7
8 Iraklis 1908 5 1 3 1 6
9 Kifisia 5 1 2 2 5
10 Kalamata 5 1 1 3 4
11 Atromitos 5 0 2 3 2
12 Asteras Tripolis 5 0 2 3 2
13 Volos NFC 5 0 2 3 2
14 Levadiakos 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 AEK Athens FC 5 13 3 +10 11
2 Panathinaikos 5 12 2 +10 15
3 PAOK 5 12 5 +7 12
4 OFI 5 8 4 +4 10
5 Panetolikos 5 8 7 +1 9
6 Kalamata 5 6 8 -2 4
7 Aris Thessalonikis 5 5 10 -5 7
8 Olympiakos Piraeus 5 4 2 +2 10
9 Iraklis 1908 5 4 6 -2 6
10 Kifisia 5 4 7 -3 5
11 Atromitos 5 4 7 -3 2
12 Asteras Tripolis 5 4 9 -5 2
13 Volos NFC 5 4 9 -5 2
14 Levadiakos 5 0 9 -9 1
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Olympiakos Piraeus 5 4.9 1.1 +3.8 10
2 Aris Thessalonikis 5 4.5 2.8 +1.7 7
3 Panathinaikos 5 3.9 2.2 +1.7 15
4 Kifisia 5 2.2 1.1 +1.1 5
5 AEK Athens FC 5 2.5 1.5 +1.0 11
6 Panetolikos 5 3.0 2.2 +0.8 9
7 PAOK 5 4.7 4.3 +0.4 12
8 Asteras Tripolis 5 3.0 3.1 -0.1 2
9 OFI 5 3.4 3.7 -0.3 10
10 Volos NFC 5 0.8 1.4 -0.6 2
11 Iraklis 1908 5 1.3 3.0 -1.7 6
12 Levadiakos 5 1.6 3.4 -1.8 1
13 Kalamata 5 2.9 5.4 -2.5 4
14 Atromitos 5 1.7 5.1 -3.4 2